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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009

Table A-13.  Number of years, projection methods, and smoothing constants used to project state-level public school enrollments and high school graduates

Projected state variable Number of years (1972–2006) Projection method   Smoothing
Basis for smoothing constant
Grade progression rates 34 Single exponential smoothing 0.4 Empirical research
Graduates divided by grade 12 enrollment 34 Single exponential smoothing 0.4 Empirical research
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 19722006; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 197273 through 200506. (This table was prepared November 2008.)

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