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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009


Table A-5.  Estimated equations and model statistics for full-time and part-time college enrollment rates of women

Independent variable Coefficient Standard error T-statistic R2 D.W.
statistic
           
Full-time          
           
Intercept term for 17-year-olds -11.15 3.706 -3.01 0.99 2.39*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds -6.98 0.279 -25.03    
Intercept term for 19-year-olds -6.79 0.210 -32.37    
Intercept term for 20-year-olds -6.96 0.204 -34.13    
Intercept term for 21-year-olds -7.18 0.203 -35.35    
Intercept term for 22-year-olds -7.92 0.222 -35.63    
Intercept term for 23-year-olds -8.34 0.213 -39.09    
Intercept term for 24-year-olds -8.62 0.205 -42.04    
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds -9.34 0.208 -44.94    
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds -10.05 0.205 -48.98    
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds -10.30 0.202 -50.93    
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita disposable
income in 2000 dollars, using the present period and the previous two periods
1.22 0.047 26.05    
Log unemployment rate for women 0.23 0.061 3.73    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 17-year-olds 0.97 0.051 19.24    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 18-year-olds 0.87 0.067 12.95    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 19-year-olds 0.39 0.134 2.90    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 20-year-olds 0.39 0.137 2.87    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 21-year-olds 0.35 0.128 2.73    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 22-year-olds 0.73 0.075 9.67    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 23-year-olds 0.65 0.091 7.15    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 24-year-olds 0.36 0.110 3.24    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 25- to 29-year-olds 0.65 0.084 7.67    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 30- to 34-year-olds 0.45 0.127 3.55    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 35- to 44-year-olds 0.07 0.120 0.56    
           
Part-time          
           
Intercept term for 17-year-olds -7.37 0.480 -15.35 0.90 2.34*
Intercept term for 18-year-olds -4.57 0.290 -15.75    
Intercept term for 19-year-olds -4.04 0.533 -7.57    
Intercept term for 20-year-olds -4.26 0.321 -13.28    
Intercept term for 21-year-olds -4.40 0.326 -13.51    
Intercept term for 22-year-olds -4.36 0.288 -15.12    
Intercept term for 23-year-olds -4.61 0.297 -15.53    
Intercept term for 24-year-olds -4.72 0.324 -14.57    
Intercept term for 25- to 29-year-olds -4.93 0.286 -17.24    
Intercept term for 30- to 34-year-olds -5.18 0.300 -17.30    
Intercept term for 35- to 44-year-olds -4.94 0.288 -17.17    
Log of three-period weighted average of per capita disposable
income in 2000 dollars, using the present period and the previous two periods
0.40 0.051 7.97    
Log unemployment rate for women          
Autocorrelation coefficient for 17-year-olds 0.42 0.124 3.40    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 18-year-olds 0.43 0.168 2.54    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 19-year-olds 0.90 0.073 12.29    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 20-year-olds 0.66 0.128 5.18    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 21-year-olds 0.76 0.080 9.61    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 22-year-olds 0.36 0.147 2.47    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 23-year-olds 0.54 0.126 4.29    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 24-year-olds 0.78 0.097 7.99    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 25- to 29-year-olds 0.51 0.123 4.16    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 30- to 34-year-olds 0.82 0.080 10.24    
Autocorrelation coefficient for 35- to 44-year-olds 0.62 0.085 7.25    
           
* p<.05.
R2 = Coefficient of determination.
D.W.statistic = Durbin-Watson statistic, a test for autocorrelation among regression residuals. For more details see Johnson, J., and Dinardo, J. (1996). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw-Hill.
NOTE: The regression method used to estimate the full-time and part-time equations was the pooled seemingly unrelated regression method with a first-order autocorrelation correction. The time period used to estimate the equations is from 1973 to 2007. The number of observations is 385. For additional information, see Intriligator M. D. (1978), Econometric Models, Techniques, & Applications, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1978, pp. 165–173.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Model, 19802007. (This table was prepared February 2009.)

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