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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009


Table A-2.  Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs), by lead time for selected statistics in all public elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions: 2008

Statistic Lead time (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                     
Public elementary and secondary schools                    
                     
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.3
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.1
9–12 enrollment 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2
High school graduates 1.0 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.6 3.9 3.8
Elementary and secondary teachers 1 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.4 5.5 6.1
Total current expenditures 2 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5
Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment 2 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 3.1 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.8 5.8
                     
Degree-granting institutions                    
                     
Total enrollment 1.3 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.6 6.4 8.0 9.2 9.8 10.4
Men 1.5 2.7 3.2 3.8 5.2 6.7 8.1 9.4 9.6 10.3
Women 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.2 4.2 6.2 7.9 9.0 10.0 10.4
4-year institutions 1.4 2.2 3.0 3.8 5.3 6.9 8.8 10.0 11.2 12.4
2-year institutions 2.1 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.6 6.6 7.7 7.5 6.9
Associate's degrees 2.1 3.3 3.6 5.1 6.0 7.2 9.3 11.4 13.8 15.6
Bachelor's degrees 0.9 1.9 2.9 4.1 6.0 7.7 9.1 10.2 12.0 13.5
Master's degrees 1.5 3.5 6.4 9.2 12.4 15.0 17.9 20.0 22.6 25.0
Doctor's degrees 3.4 5.5 5.4 6.6 6.1 7.2 8.4 8.2 10.3 11.9
First-professional degrees 1.3 1.7 1.7 2.7 5.1 6.0 8.3 10.0 11.4 13.8
                     
1 Data for teachers expressed in full-time equivalents.
2 In constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value over past projections of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. MAPEs for PK–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 25 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. MAPEs for high school graduates were calculated from the past 17 editions of Projections of Education Statistcs. MAPEs for teachers were calculated from the past 18 editions containing teachers projections and MAPEs for current expenditures were calculated using projections from the last 18 editions containing current expenditure projections. MAPEs for degree-granting institution enrollments and earned degrees were calculated using the last 11 and 12 editions, respectively. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared December 2008.)

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