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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009



Table A-1.  Summary of forecast assumptions to 2018

Variable   Middle alternative   Low alternative   High alternative
Demographic assumptions            
             
Population   Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau middle series estimates1   Same as middle alternative   Same as middle alternative
             
18- to 24-year-old population   Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of -0.3%   Same as middle alternative   Same as middle alternative
             
25- to 29-year-old population   Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.7%   Same as middle alternative   Same as middle alternative
             
30- to 34-year-old population   Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 1.3%   Same as middle alternative   Same as middle alternative
             
35- to 44-year-old population   Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of -0.1%   Same as middle alternative   Same as middle alternative
             
Economic assumptions            
             
Disposable income per capita in
constant dollars
  Annual percent changes range between 0.1% and 2.9% with an annual growth rate of 1.7%   Annual percent changes range between -1.3% and 2.8% with an annual growth rate of 1.4%   Annual percent changes range between 1.2% and 3.1% with an annual growth rate of 2.0%
     
       
             
Education revenue receipts from state
sources per capita in constant dollars
  Annual percent changes range between 0.0% and 3.6% with an annual growth rate of 2.3%   Annual percent changes range between -1.7% and 3.6% with an annual growth rate of 1.8%   Annual percent changes range between 1.1% and 3.9% with an annual growth rate of 2.7%
     
       
             
Inflation rate   Inflation rate ranges between 0.2% and 3.7%   Inflation rate ranges between -0.7% and 3.7%   Inflation rate ranges between 1.3% and 3.7%
     
             
Unemployment rate (men)            
             
Ages 18 and 19   Remains between 17.2% and 26.0%   Remains between 21.2% and 28.4%   Remains between 15.2% and 23.2%
             
Ages 20 to 24   Remains between 9.8% and 15.5%   Remains between 12.3% and 17.2%   Remains between 8.6% and 13.6%
             
Age 25 and over   Remains between 3.9% and 6.5%   Remains between 5.0% and 7.3%   Remains between 3.4% and 5.6%
             
Unemployment rate (women)            
             
Ages 18 and 19   Remains between 12.9% and 18.5%   Remains between 15.0% and 19.9%   Remains between 11.5% and 16.8%
             
Ages 20 to 24   Remains between 7.7% and 11.4%   Remains between 9.1% and 12.4%   Remains between 6.8% and 10.3%
             
Age 25 and over   Remains between 3.9% and 5.8%   Remains between 4.6% and 6.4%   Remains between 3.4% and 5.2%
             
1As the Census projections were not updated to reflect 2008 Census Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau age-specific population projections for each year were adjusted by multiplying the ratio of the total Census Bureau estimate for 2008 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2008.
NOTE: For the economic assumptions and the unemployment rate variables, the names of the three scenarios, middle, low, and high, indicate the long-run trends of the economy over the forecast period.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 27, 2008, from http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/2006_nat_af.html; and Population Projections, retrieved October 29, 2008, from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/; and IHS Global Insight, "U.S. Quarterly Model: November 2008." (This table was prepared February 2009.)

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