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Table A-1. Summary of forecast assumptions to 2018 |
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| Variable | Middle alternative | Low alternative | High alternative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic assumptions | ||||||
| Population | Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau middle series estimates1 | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative | |||
| 18- to 24-year-old population | Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of -0.3% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative | |||
| 25- to 29-year-old population | Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.7% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative | |||
| 30- to 34-year-old population | Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 1.3% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative | |||
| 35- to 44-year-old population | Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of -0.1% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative | |||
| Economic assumptions | ||||||
| Disposable income per capita in constant dollars |
Annual percent changes range between 0.1% and 2.9% with an annual growth rate of 1.7% | Annual percent changes range between -1.3% and 2.8% with an annual growth rate of 1.4% | Annual percent changes range between 1.2% and 3.1% with an annual growth rate of 2.0% | |||
| Education revenue receipts from state sources per capita in constant dollars |
Annual percent changes range between 0.0% and 3.6% with an annual growth rate of 2.3% | Annual percent changes range between -1.7% and 3.6% with an annual growth rate of 1.8% | Annual percent changes range between 1.1% and 3.9% with an annual growth rate of 2.7% | |||
| Inflation rate | Inflation rate ranges between 0.2% and 3.7% | Inflation rate ranges between -0.7% and 3.7% | Inflation rate ranges between 1.3% and 3.7% | |||
| Unemployment rate (men) | ||||||
| Ages 18 and 19 | Remains between 17.2% and 26.0% | Remains between 21.2% and 28.4% | Remains between 15.2% and 23.2% | |||
| Ages 20 to 24 | Remains between 9.8% and 15.5% | Remains between 12.3% and 17.2% | Remains between 8.6% and 13.6% | |||
| Age 25 and over | Remains between 3.9% and 6.5% | Remains between 5.0% and 7.3% | Remains between 3.4% and 5.6% | |||
| Unemployment rate (women) | ||||||
| Ages 18 and 19 | Remains between 12.9% and 18.5% | Remains between 15.0% and 19.9% | Remains between 11.5% and 16.8% | |||
| Ages 20 to 24 | Remains between 7.7% and 11.4% | Remains between 9.1% and 12.4% | Remains between 6.8% and 10.3% | |||
| Age 25 and over | Remains between 3.9% and 5.8% | Remains between 4.6% and 6.4% | Remains between 3.4% and 5.2% | |||
| 1As the Census projections were not updated to reflect 2008 Census Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau age-specific population projections for each year were adjusted by multiplying the ratio of the total Census Bureau estimate for 2008 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2008. |
| NOTE: For the economic assumptions and the unemployment rate variables, the names of the three scenarios, middle, low, and high, indicate the long-run trends of the economy over the forecast period. |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 27, 2008, from http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/2006_nat_af.html; and Population Projections, retrieved October 29, 2008, from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/; and IHS Global Insight, "U.S. Quarterly Model: November 2008." (This table was prepared February 2009.) |
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