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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009


Table 26.  Actual and projected percentage changes in public high school graduates, by region and state: Selected years, 200001 through 201819

Region and state Actual 2000–01 to 2005–06   Projected
2005–06 to
2012–13
2012–13 to
2018–19
2005–06 to
2018–19
           
United States 9.6   3.2 7.9 11.3
           
Northeast 13.8   -1.3 -2.1 -3.3
Connecticut 19.2   -0.8 -3.2 -3.9
Maine 2.3   -13.0 0.3 -12.7
Massachusetts 12.6   -4.0 -2.3 -6.2
New Hampshire 13.8   -6.0 -2.2 -8.1
New Jersey 18.3   1.6 -2.5 -0.9
New York 14.0   -7.1 -4.7 -11.5
Pennsylvania 11.7   8.1 2.1 10.4
Rhode Island 17.5   -8.7 -13.5 -21.0
Vermont -1.1   -11.7 -4.7 -15.9
           
Midwest 6.1   -1.7 3.4 1.7
Illinois 14.6   4.1 2.6 6.8
Indiana 3.1   6.6 8.0 15.1
Iowa -0.2   -4.1 7.9 3.5
Kansas 1.6   -5.7 7.0 0.9
Michigan 6.3   -4.6 -3.7 -8.1
Minnesota 4.1   -4.9 5.2 #
Missouri 7.9   -2.9 7.6 4.6
Nebraska 0.5   -2.9 9.3 6.2
North Dakota -14.8   -12.8 -8.7 -20.4
Ohio 5.5   -1.8 2.1 0.3
South Dakota -3.3   -12.0 0.9 -11.2
Wisconsin 6.2   -5.4 4.5 -1.2
           
South 11.0   5.9 16.0 22.8
Alabama 2.3   # 10.8 10.8
Arkansas 6.2   -1.6 12.8 11.0
Delaware 10.0   4.1 12.5 17.1
District of Columbia 12.2   -16.0 -4.0 -19.4
Florida 21.2   7.0 14.7 22.7
Georgia 17.6   11.2 14.7 41.3
Kentucky 4.0   3.2 9.7 13.2
Louisiana -13.2   -5.5 -3.4 -8.6
Maryland 12.8   -4.9 -2.1 -6.9
Mississippi 0.4   2.2 5.3 7.6
North Carolina 21.2   6.9 24.6 33.2
Oklahoma -2.6   -2.4 8.7 6.2
South Carolina 16.5   -3.4 10.7 6.9
Tennessee 25.2   5.4 15.7 21.9
Texas 11.7   13.0 23.8 40.0
Virginia 5.3   7.2 9.7 17.5
West Virginia -9.1   -0.8 3.4 2.6
           
West 7.9   7.9 7.7 16.2
Alaska 8.1   -6.7 1.2 -5.5
Arizona 15.7   4.3 27.0 32.5
California 9.0   10.4 0.5 11.0
Colorado 13.2   7.2 21.1 29.8
Hawaii 8.1   -8.6 -10.9 -18.6
Idaho 1.0   7.0 24.8 33.6
Montana -3.2   -11.5 3.3 -8.6
Nevada 8.8   30.1 22.3 59.1
New Mexico -2.1   -5.7 11.0 4.6
Oregon 8.2   7.0 7.4 15.0
Utah -8.3   20.1 27.5 53.0
Washington 9.3   0.2 5.7 5.9
Wyoming -9.0   -10.2 16.0 4.2
# Rounds to zero.
NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 200102 and 200607; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 198081 through 200506. (This table was prepared December 2008.)

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