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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009


Table 5.  Actual and projected percentage changes in PK–12 enrollment in public schools, by region and state: Selected years, Fall 2000 through fall 2018

[In thousands]

Region and state Actual 2000–2006   Projected
2006-2012 2012-2018 2006-2018
           
United States 4.4   3.0 6.2 9.4
           
Northeast 0.4   -5.4 0.1 -5.4
Connecticut 2.3   -4.9 -1.0 -5.9
Maine -6.3   -6.2 1.8 -4.5
Massachusetts -0.7   -4.9 -1.3 -6.2
New Hampshire -2.4   -3.7 5.0 1.1
New Jersey 5.7   -2.7 0.3 -2.4
New York -2.5   -7.9 -1.2 -9.0
Pennsylvania 3.1   -3.6 2.0 -1.7
Rhode Island -3.6   -11.0 -0.5 -11.5
Vermont -6.5   -9.5 2.3 -7.4
           
Midwest 0.8   -1.7 2.1 0.3
Illinois 3.4   -0.1 2.4 2.3
Indiana 5.7   1.1 2.1 3.2
Iowa -2.4   -0.2 1.5 1.3
Kansas -0.2   0.6 3.2 3.8
Michigan -0.3   -7.4 -0.6 -7.9
Minnesota -1.6   -0.6 6.2 5.5
Missouri 0.8   0.8 4.0 4.7
Nebraska 0.5   2.6 4.3 7.0
North Dakota -11.5   -7.4 -1.2 -8.5
Ohio 0.1   -3.1 # -3.1
South Dakota -5.8   -2.3 1.8 -0.5
Wisconsin -0.3   -1.6 3.9 2.2
           
South 7.5   8.1 9.1 18.0
Alabama 0.5   0.9 0.5 1.4
Arkansas 5.9   4.9 4.0 9.1
Delaware 6.6   5.2 6.1 11.7
District of Columbia 5.7   -3.7 7.0 3.1
Florida 9.7   9.7 13.1 24.0
Georgia 12.7   12.9 10.9 25.2
Kentucky 2.6   2.5 1.1 3.6
Louisiana -9.0   -3.2 -0.4 -3.6
Maryland -0.2   -3.6 6.3 2.4
Mississippi -0.6   -0.1 -0.7 -0.8
North Carolina 11.7   10.9 10.8 22.9
Oklahoma 2.6   3.5 3.4 7.1
South Carolina 3.8   1.6 4.1 5.8
Tennessee 7.6   6.2 6.3 12.9
Texas 13.3   15.8 14.0 32.1
Virginia 6.6   3.7 7.5 11.5
West Virginia -1.5   -0.7 -1.7 -2.4
           
West 6.2   5.1 9.1 14.7
Alaska -0.6   -2.0 10.7 8.5
Arizona 21.3   19.8 18.8 42.2
California 4.3   1.4 7.1 8.6
Colorado 9.6   9.1 9.3 19.3
Hawaii -2.0   -5.2 -0.5 -5.7
Idaho 9.1   12.9 11.7 26.1
Montana -6.8   -1.3 4.6 3.3
Nevada 24.5   18.4 18.5 40.2
New Mexico 2.5   3.7 6.5 10.5
Oregon 3.0   2.8 8.0 11.0
Utah 8.7   18.0 9.9 29.7
Washington 2.2   1.2 7.5 8.7
Wyoming -5.3   5.5 4.8 10.6
# Rounds to zero.
NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," selected years, 1999–2000 through 2005–06; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980–2005. (This table was prepared December 2008.)

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