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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009

Section 5. Elementary and Secondary Teachers: Introduction

Between fall 2006, the last year of actual public school data, and fall 2018, the number of teachers in elementary and secondary schools is projected to rise. The numbers of both public and private school teachers are projected to grow. The pupil/teacher ratios are projected to decrease in both public and private schools. The annual number of new teacher hires is projected to increase in both public and private schools.

Factors affecting the projections

The projected increase in the number of elementary and secondary teachers is related to projected levels of enrollments and education revenue receipts from state sources per capita.

Three alternative sets of projections

Middle, low, and high sets of projections were produced for the number of teachers and the pupil/teacher ratio, by control of school (public or private).

Factors that were not considered

The projections do not take into account possible changes in the number of teachers due to the effects of government policies.

Assumptions underlying the projections

In order to provide a range of possible outcomes of the number of public school teachers, the alternative projections make varying economic assumptions about the growth of assistance by state governments to local governments.


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