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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009

Section 3. High School Graduates: State and Regional (Public School Data)

The expected 11 percent national increase in public high school graduates, by state: 2004–05 through high school graduates between 2005–06 and 2018–19 2018–19 plays out differently among the states (reference figure 24 and tables 25 and 26).

Table C. Projected percentage changes in the number of public high school graduates, by state: 2005–06 through 2018–19

State Percent change    State Percent change
Nevada 59.1   Rhode Island -21.0
Utah 53.0   North Dakota -20.4
Georgia 41.3   District of Columbia -19.4
Texas 40.0   Hawaii -18.6
Idaho 33.6   Vermont -15.9
North Carolina 33.2   Maine -12.7
Arizona 32.5   New York -11.5
Colorado 29.8   South Dakota -11.2
Florida 22.7   Louisiana -8.6
Tennessee 21.9   Montana -8.6
Virginia 17.5   Michigan -8.1
Delaware 17.1   New Hampshire -8.1
Indiana 15.1   Maryland -6.9
Oregon 15.0   Massachusetts -6.2
Kentucky 13.2   Alaska -5.5
Arkansas 11.0   Connecticut -3.9
California 11.0   Wisconsin -1.2
Alabama 10.8   New Jersey -0.9
Pennsylvania 10.4      
Mississippi 7.6      
South Carolina 6.9      
Illinois 6.8      
Nebraska 6.2      
Oklahoma 6.2      
Washington 5.9      
New Mexico 4.6      
Missouri 4.6      
Wyoming 4.2      
Iowa 3.5      
West Virginia 2.6      
Kansas 0.9      
Ohio 0.3      
Minnesota #      
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys and State Public High School Graduates Model. (See reference table 26.)

States

The expected 811 percent national increase in public high school graduates, by state: 2005–06 through high school graduates between 2005–06 and 2018–19 2018–19 plays out differently among the states (reference figure 23 and tables 25 and 26).

  • Increases are projected for 33 states and the District of Columbia, with
    • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 12 states;
    • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 8 states.
  • Decreases are projected for 17 states and the District of Columbia, with
    • decreases of 15 percent or more projected for 4 states and the District of Columbia;
    • decreases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 10 states; and
    • decreases between 4.99 and 0.01 percent projected for 3 states.

Regions

Between 2005–06 and 2018–19, the number of public high school graduates is projected to

  • increase 23 percent in the South;
  • increase 16 percent in the West;
  • increase 2 percent in the Midwest; and
  • decrease 3 percent in the Northeast.

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