Between 2005–06, the last year of actual data, and 2018–19, the number of high school graduates is projected to increase nationally by 9 percent. Public schools are expected to have an increase in high school graduates, and private schools are expected to have a decrease. Increases are expected in the Midwest, West, and South, and a decrease is expected in the Northeast.
Projected increases in the number of graduates reflect changes in the 18-year-old population over the projection period, rather than changes in the graduation rates of 12th-graders. Projections of graduates could be affected by changes in policies influencing graduation requirements.