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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009

Section 3. High School Graduates: Introduction

Between 2005–06, the last year of actual data, and 2018–19, the number of high school graduates is projected to increase nationally by 9 percent. Public schools are expected to have an increase in high school graduates, and private schools are expected to have a decrease. Increases are expected in the Midwest, West, and South, and a decrease is expected in the Northeast.

Factors affecting the projections

Projected increases in the number of graduates reflect changes in the 18-year-old population over the projection period, rather than changes in the graduation rates of 12th-graders. Projections of graduates could be affected by changes in policies influencing graduation requirements.

Definition

A high school graduate is defined as an individual who has received formal recognition from school authorities, by the granting of a diploma, for completing a prescribed course of study. This definition does not include other high school completers or high school equivalency recipients.
 

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