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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009

Section 2. Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions: Accuracy of Projections

For projections of total enrollment in degree-granting institutions, an analysis of projection errors based on the past eight editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 1.3, 2.2, 4.6, and 10.4 percent, respectively. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to be within 1.3 percent of the actual value, on average. For more information, see table A-2 in appendix A.

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