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Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: State and Regional (Public School Data)


States

Table A. Projected percentage increases in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, by state: 2006 through 2018

State Percent change    State Percent change
Arizona 42.2   Alaska 8.5
Nevada 40.2   Oklahoma 7.1
Texas 32.1   Nebraska 7.0
Utah 29.7   South Carolina 5.8
Idaho 26.1   Minnesota 5.5
Georgia 25.2   Missouri 4.7
Florida 24.0   Kansas 3.8
North Carolina 22.9   Kentucky 3.6
Colorado 19.3   Montana 3.3
Tennessee 12.9   Indiana 3.2
Delaware 11.7   District of Columbia 3.1
Virginia 11.5   Maryland 2.4
Oregon 11.0   Illinois 2.3
Wyoming 10.6   Wisconsin 2.2
New Mexico 10.5   Alabama 1.4
Arkansas 9.1   Iowa 1.3
Washington 8.7   New Hampshire 1.1
California 8.6      
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (See reference table 5.)

The expected 9 percent national increase in public school enrollment between 2006 and 2018 plays out differently among the states (reference figures 5–7 and tables 4–9).

  • Increases are projected for 34 states and the District of Columbia, with
    • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 9 states;
    • increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 14 states; and
    • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 11 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Decreases are projected for 16 states, with
    • decreases of 5 percent or more projected for 8 states; and
    • decreases between 4.99 and 0.1 percent projected for 8 states.

Regions

Table B. Projected percentage decreases in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, by state: 2006 through 2018

State Percent change    State Percent change
Rhode Island -11.5   Maine -4.5
New York -9.0   Louisiana -3.6
North Dakota -8.5   Ohio -3.1
Michigan -7.9   West Virginia -2.4
Vermont -7.4   New Jersey -2.4
Massachusetts -6.2   Pennsylvania -1.7
Connecticut -5.9   Mississippi -0.8
Hawaii -5.7   South Dakota -0.5
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (See reference table 5.)

Between 2006 and 2018, public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to decrease 5 percent in the Northeast.

  • increase 18 percent in the South;
  • increase 15 percent in the West;
  • increase less than 1 percent in the Midwest; and
  • decrease 5 percent in the Northeast.

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