Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: National
Enrollment increases are expected at both the PK–8 and 9–12 grade spans (figures A and B; reference figures 2, 3 and 4 and tables 1, 2 and 3).
The grade progression rate method
The method used to project school enrollments assumes that future trends in factors affecting enrollments will be consistent with past patterns. It implicitly includes the net effect of factors such as dropouts, deaths, nonpromotion, and transfers to and from public schools.See appendix A for more details.
Figure A. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary enrollment, PK–12, PK–8, and 9–12: Selected years, 1993 through 2018
NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. The private school number for 2006 is estimated using data from the Private School Universe Survey.
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys, various years; Private School Universe Survey, various years; and National Elementary and Secondary School Enrollment Model. (See reference table 1.)
Total enrollment
Total elementary and secondary enrollment
- increased 12 percent between 1993 and 2006; and
- is projected to increase an additional 8 percent between 2006 and 2018.
Enrollment in grades PK–8
Enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8
- increased 7 percent between 1993 and 2006; and
- is projected to increase an additional 10 percent between 2006 and 2018.
Enrollment in grades 9–12
Enrollment in grades 9–12
- increased 26 percent between 1993 and 2006; and
- is projected to increase an additional 3 percent between 2006 and 2018.
Figure B. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary enrollment, by control of school: Selected years, 1993 through 2018
NOTE: The private school number for 2006 is estimated using data from the Private School Universe Survey.
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys, various years; Private School Universe Survey, various years; and National Elementary and Secondary School Enrollment Model. (See reference table 1.)
Public elementary and secondary enrollment
Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools
- increased 13 percent between 1993 and 2006; and
- is projected to increase an additional 9 percent between 2006 and 2018.
Private elementary and secondary enrollment
Enrollment in private elementary and secondary schools
- decreased 1 percent between 1993 and 2006; and
- is projected to decrease an additional 2 percent between 2006 and 2018.
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