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Projections of Education Statistics to 2017

NCES 2008-078
September 2008


Table A-2.  Summary of forecast assumptions to 2017

Statistic Lead time (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                     
Public elementary and secondary schools                    
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.3
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.7 3.2
9–12 enrollment 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3
High school graduates 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.7 3.5 3.9 3.9
Elementary and secondary teachers1 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.7 5.3 6.1
Total current expenditures2 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.4 4.7 4.5 3.8
Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment2 1.3 2.1 2.0 2.3 3.3 4.0 4.9 5.3 5.8 5.4
                     
Degree-granting institutions                    
Total enrollment 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.2 4.6 5.6 7.0 9.4 9.8 10.9
Men 1.5 2.7 3.1 3.8 5.4 6.6 8.4 9.3 9.6 10.3
Women 2.5 3.0 3.3 4.3 5.6 6.5 7.9 9.4 10.0 11.3
4-year institutions 1.2 2.1 2.8 3.8 5.4 6.8 8.1 9.9 11.2 12.5
2-year institutions 2.2 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.6 7.6 8.5 7.5 8.1
Associate's degrees 2.1 2.9 3.1 4.8 5.7 6.9 8.9 11.0 12.6 14.3
Bachelor's degrees 1.0 1.9 2.6 4.0 5.6 7.3 8.8 9.7 11.1 12.1
Master's degrees 1.9 3.7 6.9 10.1 12.1 14.7 17.3 19.5 21.8 22.9
Doctor's degrees 3.0 4.4 3.6 5.1 5.4 3.9 5.7 7.3 7.2 7.6
First-professional degrees 1.4 1.5 1.6 3.0 5.1 6.8 8.3 9.9 12.4 13.7
–Not available.
1 Data for teachers expressed in full-time equivalents.
2 In constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value over past projections of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. MAPEs for PK–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 24 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. MAPEs for high school graduates were calculated from the past 16 editions of Projections of Education Statistcs. MAPEs for teachers were calculated from the past 17 editions containing teachers projections and MAPEs for current expenditures were calculated using projections from the last 17 editions containing current expenditure projections. MAPEs for degree-granting institution enrollments and earned degrees were calculated using the last 10 and 11 editions, respectively. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared December 2007.)

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