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Projections of Education Statistics to 2017

NCES 2008-078
September 2008

Foreword

Projections of Education Statistics to 2017 is the 36th report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2016. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2017. This is the first edition of the Projections of Education Statistics to include projections of new teacher hires in public and private elementary and secondary schools. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2017 at the state level. The projections in this report were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared for individual states.

Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state, or local education policies that may affect enrollment levels.

appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology and describes the models and assumptions used to develop the national and state projections. The enrollment models use enrollment data and population estimates and projections from NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The models also use projections of economic variables from Global Insight, Inc., an economic forecasting service.

The projections presented in this report are based on the 2000 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net immigration, and mortality rate. For further information, see appendix A. Most of the Projections of Education Statistics include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about demographic and economic growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative projections) in each table is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a range of outcomes.

Val Plisko, Associate Commissioner
Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting Studies Division
September 2008

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