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Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
NCES 2008-060
December 2007

Table A-26  Estimated equations and model statistics for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment, and education revenue from state sources
Dependent variable Equation R 2 Durbin-
Rho Time Period
Current expenditures
per pupil
ln(CUREXP) = 0.9 + 0.6ln(PCI) + 0.2ln(SGRANT) 0.99 1.6^ AR(1) 0.94 1973–74 to
(3.4) (2.2) (19.3) 2003–04
Education revenue from
state sources per capita
ln(SGRNT) = .9 + 1.2ln(PCI) + 0.9ln(ENRPOP) 0.99 1.7* AR(1) 0.41 1973–74 to
        (21.4)   (6.4)       (2.6) 2003–04
* p<.05.
^ The Durbin-Watson statistic is inconclusive as to whether to either accept or reject the hypothesis of no autocorrelation at the .05 significance level. For an explanation of the Durbin-Watson statistic, see J. Johnston and J. Dinardo, Econometric Methods, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1996.
1 AR(1) indicates that the models was estimated using least squares with the AR(1) process for correcting for first-order autocorrelation. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast when correcting for autocorrelation, see G. Judge, W. Hill, R. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and T. Lee, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pp. 315–318.
CUREXP = Current expenditures of public elementary and secondary schools per pupil in fall enrollment in constant 1982–84 dollars
SGRANT = Local governments' education revenue from state sources, per capita, in constant 1982–84 dollars
PCI = Disposable income per capita in constant 2000 chained dollars
ENRPOP = Ratio of fall enrollment to the population
NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. Rho measures the correlation between errors in time period t and time period t minus 1. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Elementary and Secondary School Current Expenditures Model, 1969–70 through 2003–04; and Revenue Receipts from State Sources Model, 1971–72 through 2003–04. (This table was prepared December 2006.)
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