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Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
NCES 2008-060
December 2007


Table A-24  Degrees conferred (assumptions)
 
Variable   Assumptions Alternatives Tables
   
Associate's degrees  
   
Men   The number of associate's degrees awarded to men is a linear function of the log of the ratio of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions to the male population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 2 years (where weights are .67 and .33 for descending lagged years), plus the similar log ratio for part-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions. This relationship will continue through 2016–17. Middle 27
   
Women The number of associate's degrees awarded to women is a linear function of the log of the ratio of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions to the female population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 2 years (where weights are .67 and .33 for descending lagged years), plus the similar log ratio for part-time female undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions. This relationship will continue through 2016–17. Middle 27
         
   
Bachelor's degrees  
   
Men   The number of bachelor's degrees awarded to men is a linear function of the log of the ratio of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions to the male population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 4 years (where weights are .4, .3, .2, and .1 for descending lagged years). This relationship will continue through 2016–17. Middle 27
   
Women The number of bachelor's degrees awarded to women is a linear function of the log of the ratio of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions to the female population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 4 years (where weights are .4, .3, .2, and .1 for descending lagged years). This relationship will continue through 2016–17. Middle 27
         
   
Master's degrees      
   
Men   The number of master's degrees awarded to men is a linear function of the log of the ratio of full-time male graduate school enrollment to the male population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the the last 2 years (where weights are .67 and .33 for descending lagged years). This relationship will continue through 2016–17. Middle 29
   
Women   The number of master's degrees awarded to women is a linear function of the log of the ratio of full-time female graduate school enrollment to the female population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the the last 2 years (where weights are .67 and .33 for descending lagged years), plus the similar log ratio for part-time female graduate school enrollment. This relationship will continue through 2016–17. Middle 29
         
   
Doctor's degrees        
   
Men   The number of doctor's degrees awarded to men is a linear function of the log of the ratio of full-time male graduate school enrollment to the male population of 35- to 44-year-olds, weighted over the the last 4 years (where weights are .4, .3, .2, and .1 for descending lagged years), plus the similar log ratio for part-time male graduate school enrollment. This relationship will continue through 2016–17. Middle 30
   
Women   The number of doctor's degrees awarded to women is a linear function of the log of the ratio of full-time female graduate school enrollment to the female population of 35- to 44-year-olds, weighted over the the last 4 years (where weights are .4, .3, .2, and .1 for descending lagged years). This relationship will continue through 2016–17. Middle 30
         
 
First-professional degrees        
         
Men   The number of first-professional degrees awarded to men is a linear function of the log of the ratio of full-time male first-professional school enrollment to the male population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the last 3 years (where weights are .5, .33, and, .17 for descending lagged years), plus the similar log ratio for part-time male first-professional school enrollment. This relationship will continue through 2016–17. Middle 31
   
Women   The number of first-professional degrees awarded to women is a linear function of the log of the ratio of full-time female first-professional school enrollment to the female population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the last 3 years (where weights are .5, .33, and, .17 for descending lagged years). This relationship will continue through 2016–17. Middle 31
         
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Degrees Conferred Model, 1975–76 through 2004–05. (This table was prepared June 2007.)
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