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Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
NCES 2008-060
December 2007


Table A-23  Estimated equations and model statistics for degrees conferred, by degree type and sex
 
Dependent variable Equation R2 Durbin-
Watson
statistic
Error distribution pattern1 Rho Time Period
Associate's degrees LNASSOCM = 4.9 + 0.4LNUG2ML2 0.95 2.0* AR(1) 0.57 1975–76 to
Men (10.7) (5.0) 2004–05
 
Associate's degrees LNASSOCW = 5.6 + 0.6LNUG2WL2 0.99 1.5* AR(1) 0.66 1975–76 to
Women (16.6) (8.5) 2004–05
 
Bachelor's degrees LNBACHM = 5.6 + 1.2LNUG4FTML4 0.98 1.4^ AR(1) 0.89 1977–78 to
Men (4.9) (7.6) 2004–05
 
Bachelor's degrees LNBACHW = 5.6 + 1.0LNUG4FTWL4 0.99 1.5* AR(1) 0.92 1977–78 to
Women (3.2) (6.8) 2004–05
 
Master's degrees LNMASTM = 6.9 + 1.2LNGFTML2 0.98 1.4^ AR(1) 0.73 1975–76 to
Men (9.4) (4.4) 2004–05
 
Master's degrees LNMASTW = 7.6 + 0.7LNGWL2 0.99 1.4^ AR(1) 0.79 1975–76 to
Women (22.4) (17.4) 2004–05
 
Doctor's degrees LNDOCM = 3.4 + 0.4LNGML4 0.99 1.6* AR(1) 0.66 1977–78 to
Men (8.1) (7.0) 2004–05
 
Doctor's degrees LNDOCW = 3.6 + 0.9LNGFTWL4 0.96 1.7* AR(1) 0.70 1977–78 to
Women (10.7) (4.7) 2004–05
 
First-professional degrees LNFPROM = 3.7 + 0.2LNFPML3 0.99 1.6* AR(1) 0.86 1976–77 to
Men (3.1) (20.1) 2004–05
 
First-professional degrees LNFPROW = 5.8 + 1.0LNFPFTWL3 0.99 1.6* AR(1) 0.51 1976–77 to
Women         (30.0)       (3.1) 2004–05
* p<.05.
^ The Durbin-Watson statistic is inconclusive as to whether to either accept or reject the hypothesis of no autocorrelation at the .05 significance level. For an explanation of the Durbin-Watson statistic, see J. Johnston and J. Dinardo, Econometric Methods, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1996.
1 AR(1) indicates that the model was estimated using least squares with the AR(1) process for correcting for first-order autocorrelation. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see G. Judge, W. Hill, R. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and T. Lee, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pp. 315–318.
Where:
LNASSOCM = Log of the ratio of associate's degrees awarded to men relative to the population of 18- to 24-year old men
LNASSOCW = Log of the ratio of associate's degrees awarded to woman relative to the population of 18- to 24-year old women
LNBACHM = Log of the ratio of bachelor's degrees awarded to men relative to the population of 18- to 24-year old men
LNBACHW = Log of the ratio of bachelor's degrees awarded to women relative to the population of 18- to 24-year old women
LNMASTM = Log of the ratio of master's degrees awarded to men relative to the population of 25- to 34-year old men
LNMASTW = Log of the ratio of master's degrees awarded to women relative to the population of 25- to 34-year old women
LNDOCM = Log of the ratio of doctor's degrees awarded to men relative to the population of 35- to 44-year old men
LNDOCW = Log of the ratio of doctor's degrees awarded to women relative to the population of 35- to 44-year old women
LNFPROM = Log of the ratio of first-professional degrees awarded to men relative to the population of 25- to 34-year old men
LNFPROW = Log of the ratio of first-professional degrees awarded to women relative to the population of 25- to 34-year old women
LNUG2ML2 = Log of the ratio of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions to the male population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 2 years (where
weights are .67 and .33 for descending lagged years), plus the similar log ratio for part-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions.
LNUG2WL2 = Log of the ratio of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions to the female population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 2 years (where
weights are .67 and .33 for descending lagged years), plus the similar log ratio for part-time female undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions.
LNUG4FTML4 = Log of the ratio of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions to the male population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 4 years (where
weights are .4, .3, .2, and .1 for descending lagged years).
LNUG4FTWL4 = Log of the ratio of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions to the female population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 4 years
(where weights are .4, .3, .2, and .1 for descending lagged years).
LNGFTML2 = Log of the ratio of full-time male graduate enrollment to the male population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the last 2 years (where weights are .67 and .33 for
descending lagged years).
LNGWL2 = Log of the ratio of full-time female graduate enrollment to the female population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the last 2 years (where weights are .67 and .33 for
descending lagged years), plus the similar log ratio for part-time female graduate enrollment.
LNGML4 = Log of the ratio of full-time male graduate enrollment to the male population of 35- to 44-year-olds, weighted over the last 4 years (where weights are .4, .3., .2, and .1 for
descending lagged years), plus the similar log ratio for part-time male graduate enrollment.
LNGFTWL4 = Log of the ratio of full-time female graduate enrollment to the female population of 35- to 44-year-olds, weighted over the last 4 years (where weights are .4, .3, .2, and
.1 for descending lagged years).
LNFPML3 = Log of the ratio of full-time male first-professional enrollment to the male population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the last 3 years (where weights are .5, .33,
and .17 for descending lagged years), plus the similar log ratio for part-time male first-professional enrollment.
LNFPFTWL3 = Log of the ratio of full-time female first-professional enrollment to the female population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the last 3 years (where weights are .5,
.33, and .17 for descending lagged years).
NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. Rho measures the correlation between errors in time period t and time period t minus 1. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Degrees Conferred Model, 1975–76 through 2004–05. (This table was prepared June 2007.)
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