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Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
NCES 2008-060
December 2007


Table A-22  Enrollment (assumptions)
 
Variable   Assumptions Alternatives Tables
         
Elementary and secondary enrollment   Age-specific enrollment rates will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. Middle (no
alternatives)
1-9
         
Public enrollment rates and public grade retention rates will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. Middle (no
alternatives)
1-9
         
The percentage of 7th- and 8th-grade public students enrolled in schools organized as secondary schools will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. Middle (no alternatives) 1-9
         
         
College enrollment, by age, sex, and attendance status   Age-specific enrollment rates are a function of dummy variables by age, the log of three-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita from the Global Insight’s February 2006 trend scenario and the log unemployment rate by age group from the Global Insight’s February 2006 trend scenario.. Middle 10-19
         
Age-specific enrollment rates are a function of dummy variables by age, the log of three-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita from the Global Insight’s February 2006 pessimistic scenario and the log unemployment rate by age group from the Global Insight’s February 2006 pessimistic scenario. Low 10-19
         
  Age-specific enrollment rates are a function of dummy variables by age, the log of three-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita from the Global Insight’s February 2006 optimistic scenario and the log unemployment rate by age group from the Global Insight’s February 2006 optimistic scenario. High 10-19
         
         
College enrollment, by sex, attendance status, level enrolled, and type of institution   For each group and for each attendance status separately, percent of total enrollment by sex, level enrolled, and type of institution will follow past trends through 2016. For each age group and attendance status category, the sum of the percentages must equal 100 percent. High, middle,
and low
10-19
         
         
College enrollment, by control of institution   For each enrollment category, by sex, attendance status, and level enrolled, and by type of institution, public enrollment as a percent of total enrollment will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. High, middle,
and low
10-19
         
         
Graduate enrollment   For each enrollment category, by sex and attendance status of student, and by type and control of institution, graduate enrollment as a percent of postbaccalaureate enrollment will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. High, middle,
and low
20
         
         
College enrollment, by age, sex, attendance status, and race/ethnicity  
         
Full-time: White, Non-Hispanic men; White, Non-Hispanic women; Black, Non-Hispanic men; Black, Non-Hispanic women; Hispanic men; Hispanic women; Asian/Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic men; Asian/Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic women. Part-time: White, Non-Hispanic women; Black, Non-Hispanic men; Black, Non-Hispanic women; Hispanic men; Hispanic women; Asian/Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic men; Asian/Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic women   Age-specific enrollment rates by race/ethnicity are a function of dummy variables by age and the log of the corresponding race/ethnicty group's disposable income per capita in current dollars. Middle (no alternatives) 22
         
Part-time White, Non-Hispanic men   Age-specific enrollment rates by race/ethnicity are a function of dummy variables by age and the log of real total compensation. Middle (no alternatives) 22
         
         
Full-time-equivalent of part-time enrollment   For each enrollment category, by type and control of institution and level enrolled, the percent that full-time-equivalent of part-time enrollment is of part-time enrollment will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. High, middle,
and low
23
         
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1972–2004; State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980–2004; Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Model, 1980–2005; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Model, 1980–2005. (This table was prepared January 2007.)
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