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Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
NCES 2008-060
December 2007

Table A-13.  Number of years, projection methods, and smoothing constants used to project state-level public school enrollments and high school graduates
Projected state variable Number of years
Projection method Smoothing constant Basis for smoothing constant
Grade progression rates 32 Single exponential smoothing 0.4 Empirical research
Graduates divided by grade 12 enrollment 32 Single exponential smoothing 0.4 Empirical research
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980–2004; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 1980–81 through 2003–04. (This table was prepared November 2006.)
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