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Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
NCES 2008-060
December 2007


Table A-2.  Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) by lead time for selected statistics in all public elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions: 2006
 
Lead time (years)
Statistic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Public elementary and secondary schools
Prekindergarten–12 enrollment 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.4
Prekindergarten–8 enrollment 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.3
9–12 enrollment 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.3
High school graduates 0.8 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.4 3.5 3.9 3.9
Elementary and secondary teachers1 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.2 4.5 5.3 5.5
Total current expenditures2 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.7 4.7 3.8 3.6
Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment2 1.4 2.2 2.1 2.3 3.3 4.3 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.5
 
Degree-granting institutions
Total enrollment 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.5 4.6 5.3 7.0 9.4 10.4 10.6
Men 1.6 2.8 3.1 4.2 5.4 7.1 8.5 9.3 9.8 9.6
Women 3.1 3.3 3.3 4.9 5.6 6.1 8.3 9.4 10.8 11.4
4-year institutions 1.1 2.0 2.8 3.9 5.4 6.2 8.0 9.9 11.3 11.9
2-year institutions 2.4 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.9 6.6 8.4 8.5 8.8 8.5
Associate's degrees 2.3 3.0 2.9 4.8 6.0 6.7 8.9 11.1 11.3 14.8
Bachelor's degrees 0.9 2.0 2.8 4.0 6.0 7.5 8.8 10.0 9.4 11.2
Master's degrees 1.6 3.9 7.7 10.1 12.3 14.2 17.3 19.5 15.7 19.8
Doctor's degrees 2.6 4.3 3.0 5.1 4.1 2.3 5.7 8.4 1.7 4.5
First-professional degrees 1.3 1.4 1.8 3.0 5.6 7.0 8.3 11.9 10.5 12.4
1 Data for teachers expressed in full-time equivalents.
2 In constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value over past projections of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. MAPEs for K–12 enrollments were calculated using the last 23 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. MAPEs for high school graduates were calculated from the past 15 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. MAPEs for teachers were calculated from the past 16 editions containing teachers projections and MAPEs for current expenditures were calculated using projections from the last 16 editions containing current expenditure projections. MAPEs for degree-granting institution enrollments and earned degrees were calculated using the last 9 and 10 editions, respectively. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared November 2006.)
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