| Table A-1. Summary of forecast assumptions to 2016 |
|---|
| Variable | Middle alternative | Low alternative | High alternative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic assumptions | ||||||
| Population | Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau middle series estimates1. | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative | |||
| 18- to 24-year-old population | Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.1% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative | |||
| 25- to 29-year-old population | Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 1.0% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative | |||
| 30- to 34-year-old population | Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.8% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative | |||
| 35- to 44-year-old population | Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.6% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative | |||
| Economic assumptions | ||||||
| Disposable income per capita in constant dollars | Annual percent changes range between 0.9% and 3.3% with an annual growth rate of 2.1% | Annual percent changes range between 0.7% and 2.4% with an annual growth rate of 1.7% | Annual percent changes range between 0.9% and 3.9% with an annual growth rate of 2.5% | |||
| Education revenue receipts from state sources per capita in constant dollars |
Annual percent changes range between 1.6% and 4.5% with an annual growth rate of 2.7% | Annual percent changes range between 1.2% and 3.4% with an annual growth rate of 2.2% | Annual percent changes range between 1.7% and 5.3% with an annual growth rate of 3.2% | |||
| Inflation rate | Inflation rate ranges between 1.8% and 3.4% | Inflation rate ranges between 1.2% and 3.3% | Inflation rate ranges between 2.4% and 3.9% | |||
| Unemployment rate (men) | ||||||
| Ages 18 and 19 | Remains between 15.2% and 16.4% | Remains between 15.1% and 16.3% | Remains between 15.4% and 16.5% | |||
| Ages 20 to 24 | Remains between 9.0% and 9.7% | Remains between 8.9% and 9.7% | Remains between 9.1% and 9.8% | |||
| Age 25 and over | Remains between 3.7% and 4.0% | Remains between 3.6% and 4.0% | Remains between 3.7% and 4.0% | |||
| Unemployment rate (women) | ||||||
| Ages 18 and 19 | Remains between 12.6% and 13.2% | Remains between 12.5% and 13.1% | Remains between 12.7% and 13.3% | |||
| Ages 20 to 24 | Remains between 7.3% and 7.7% | Remains between 7.2% and 7.6% | Remains between 7.4% and 7.8% | |||
| Age 25 and over | Remains between 4.0% and 4.2% | Remains between 3.9% and 4.2% | Remains between 4.0% and 4.2% |
| 1 As the Census projections were not updated to reflect 2005 Census Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau age-specific population projections for each year used adjusted by multipling the ratio of the total Census Bureau estimate for 2005 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2005. |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 10 and 11, 2006, from http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/2005_nat_af.html; and Population Projections, retrieved October 10 and 11, 2006, from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj; and Global Insight, Inc., "U.S. Quarterly Model." (This table was prepared January 2007.) |
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