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Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
NCES 2008-060
December 2007


Table A-1.  Summary of forecast assumptions to 2016
 
Variable   Middle alternative   Low alternative   High alternative
Demographic assumptions
Population  Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau middle series estimates1. Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
 
18- to 24-year-old population  Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.1% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
 
25- to 29-year-old population  Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 1.0% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
 
30- to 34-year-old population  Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.8% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
 
35- to 44-year-old population  Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.6% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
 
Economic assumptions 
Disposable income per
capita in constant dollars 
Annual percent changes range between 0.9% and 3.3% with an annual growth rate of 2.1% Annual percent changes range between 0.7% and 2.4% with an annual growth rate of 1.7% Annual percent changes range between 0.9% and 3.9% with an annual growth rate of 2.5%
 
Education revenue receipts
from state sources per capita
in constant dollars
Annual percent changes range between 1.6% and 4.5% with an annual growth rate of 2.7% Annual percent changes range between 1.2% and 3.4% with an annual growth rate of 2.2% Annual percent changes range between 1.7% and 5.3% with an annual growth rate of 3.2%
 
Inflation rate  Inflation rate ranges between 1.8% and 3.4% Inflation rate ranges between 1.2% and 3.3% Inflation rate ranges between 2.4% and 3.9%
 
Unemployment rate (men) 
Ages 18 and 19  Remains between 15.2% and 16.4% Remains between 15.1% and 16.3% Remains between 15.4% and 16.5%
Ages 20 to 24  Remains between 9.0% and 9.7% Remains between 8.9% and 9.7% Remains between 9.1% and 9.8%
Age 25 and over  Remains between 3.7% and 4.0% Remains between 3.6% and 4.0% Remains between 3.7% and 4.0%
 
Unemployment rate (women) 
Ages 18 and 19  Remains between 12.6% and 13.2% Remains between 12.5% and 13.1% Remains between 12.7% and 13.3%
Ages 20 to 24  Remains between 7.3% and 7.7% Remains between 7.2% and 7.6% Remains between 7.4% and 7.8%
Age 25 and over    Remains between 4.0% and 4.2%   Remains between 3.9% and 4.2%   Remains between 4.0% and 4.2%
1 As the Census projections were not updated to reflect 2005 Census Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau age-specific population projections for each year used adjusted by multipling the ratio of the total Census Bureau estimate for 2005 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2005.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved October 10 and 11, 2006, from http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/2005_nat_af.html; and Population Projections, retrieved October 10 and 11, 2006, from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj; and Global Insight, Inc., "U.S. Quarterly Model." (This table was prepared January 2007.)
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