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Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
NCES 2008-060
December 2007


Table 26.  Actual and projected percentage changes in public high school graduates, by region and state: Selected years, 1998–99 through 2016–17
 
Region and state  Actual
1998–99
to 2003–04
  Projected
  2003–04
to 2010–11
2010–11
to 2016–17
2003–04
to 2016–17
United States  12.0 6.7 -0.4 6.3
 
Northeast  12.9 6.5 -5.7 0.5
Connecticut  22.2 5.4 -3.5 1.7
Maine  10.8 -11.8 -7.7 -18.7
Massachusetts  13.3 0.9 -7.2 -6.4
New Hampshire  18.3 -0.2 -6.7 -6.9
New Jersey  24.4 20.1 -0.9 19.1
New York  7.9 7.7 -7.6 -0.5
Pennsylvania  9.6 2.9 -6.0 -3.3
Rhode Island  13.2 5.4 -10.9 -6.1
Vermont  8.9 -13.0 -10.3 -21.9
 
Midwest  5.5 0.9 -4.5 -3.6
Illinois  10.8 4.5 -4.1 0.1
Indiana  -5.0 10.7 1.8 12.7
Iowa  -0.1 0.5 -2.1 -1.6
Kansas  5.1 -5.5 0.5 -5.0
Michigan  5.0 4.1 -6.8 -3.0
Minnesota  3.7 -2.5 -4.2 -6.6
Missouri  10.4 2.3 -3.9 -1.6
Nebraska  -1.2 -1.1 0.1 -0.9
North Dakota  -6.0 -12.8 -17.9 -28.4
Ohio  7.1 0.7 -6.9 -6.3
South Dakota  2.8 -13.2 -7.9 -20.1
Wisconsin  9.1 -9.5 -7.3 -16.1
 
South  13.4 10.4 4.1 14.9
Alabama  0.6 5.0 -5.6 -0.9
Arkansas  1.1 1.3 4.0 5.3
Delaware  7.2 12.8 -2.7 9.8
District of Columbia  13.3 19.7 -30.2 -16.5
Florida  28.4 21.6 9.2 32.7
Georgia  15.7 17.9 9.2 27.8
Kentucky  2.0 -0.1 0.9 0.8
Louisiana  -2.1 -4.6 -6.0 -10.3
Maryland  14.4 7.5 -6.1 0.9
Mississippi  -1.9 5.8 -6.1 -0.7
North Carolina  20.0 16.1 8.4 25.9
Oklahoma  0.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
South Carolina  5.5 9.5 -0.1 9.3
Tennessee  12.9 7.0 -0.4 6.5
Texas  20.0 9.5 8.7 19.0
Virginia  12.8 13.2 1.3 14.6
West Virginia  -12.8 -2.6 -3.8 -6.3
 
West  12.8 11.0 1.0 12.1
Alaska  6.3 -3.8 -1.2 -5.0
Arizona  27.4 28.9 10.9 43.0
California  14.8 12.7 -3.6 8.7
Colorado  21.2 7.6 6.4 14.5
Hawaii  6.3 0.3 -6.6 -6.4
Idaho  -1.1 8.8 10.4 20.1
Montana  -3.9 -10.1 -7.6 -17.0
Nevada  9.4 40.0 20.0 68.0
New Mexico  3.3 2.5 -1.3 1.2
Oregon  16.7 -1.8 0.7 -1.1
Utah  -4.2 17.9 23.1 45.1
Washington  10.6 -0.3 -2.2 -2.5
Wyoming  -8.1   -12.3 -4.4 -16.1
NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 1999–2000 and 2004–05; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 1980–81 through 2003–04. (This table was prepared December 2006.)
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