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Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
NCES 2008-060
December 2007

Section 3. High School Graduates: Accuracy of Projections

For NCES projections of public high school graduates produced over the last 16 years, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 0.8, 0.9, 1.6, and 3.9, respectively. NCES projections of public high school graduates have been less accurate than projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment, but more accurate than projections of earned degrees by level. For more information, see table A-2 in appendix A.

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