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Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
NCES 2008-060
December 2007

Section 3. High School Graduates: State and Regional (Public School Data)

Between 2003–04 and 2016–17, the number of public high school graduates is expected to increase in 22 states and decrease in 28 states and the District of Columbia (table C; reference figure 23 and tables 25 and 26). In the regions, the number of public high school graduates is expected to increase in the West, South, and Northeast, and decrease in the Midwest.

Table C. Projected percent changes in the number of public high school graduates, by state: 2003–04 through 2016–17

State Percent change    State Percent change
Nevada 68.0 North Dakota -28.4
Utah 45.1 Vermont -21.9
Arizona 43.0 South Dakota -20.1
Florida 32.7 Maine -18.7
Georgia 27.8 Montana -17.0
North Carolina 25.9 District of Columbia -16.5
Idaho 20.1 Wyoming -16.1
New Jersey 19.1 Wisconsin -16.1
Texas 19.0 Louisiana -10.3
Virginia 14.6 New Hampshire -6.9
Colorado 14.5 Minnesota -6.6
Indiana 12.7 Hawaii -6.4
Delaware 9.8 Massachusetts -6.4
South Carolina 9.3 West Virginia -6.3
California 8.7 Ohio -6.3
Tennessee 6.5 Rhode Island -6.1
Arkansas 5.3 Kansas -5.0
Connecticut 1.7 Alaska -5.0
New Mexico 1.2 Pennsylvania -3.3
Maryland 0.9 Michigan -3.0
Kentucky 0.8 Washington -2.5
Illinois 0.1 Missouri -1.6
Iowa -1.6
Oregon -1.1
Nebraska -0.9
Alabama -0.9
Mississippi -0.7
New York -0.5
Oklahoma -0.2
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys and State Public High School Graduates Model. (See reference table 26.)

States

The expected 6 percent national increase in public high school graduates between 2003–04 and 2016–17 plays out differently among the states.

  • Increases are projected for 22 states with
    • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 9 states;
    • increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 8 states; and
    • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 5 states.
  • Decreases are projected for 28 states and the District of Columbia.
    • decreases of 15 percent or more projected for 7 states and the District of Columbia;
    • decreases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 9 states; and
    • decreases between 4.99 and 0.1 percent projected for 12 states (including Alaska which has a projected decrease of 4.97 percent).

Regions

Between 2003–04 and 2016–17, the number of public high school graduates is projected to

  • increase 15 percent in the South;
  • increase 12 percent in the West;
  • increase 1 percent in the Northeast; and
  • decrease 4 percent in the Midwest.

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