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Projections of Education Statistics to 2016
NCES 2008-060
December 2007

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: State and Regional (Public School Data)

Between 2004 and 2016, enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools is expected to increase in 40 states and decrease in 10 states and the District of Columbia (tables A and B; reference figures 5–7 and tables 4–9). In the regions, public school enrollment during the same period is expected to increase in the Midwest, South, and West, and decrease in the Northeast.

Table A. Projected percent increases in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, by state: 2004 through 2016
State Percent change    State Percent change
Nevada 36.6 South Carolina 6.9
Utah 32.4 Kentucky 6.5
Arizona 28.1 Missouri 6.3
Texas 28.1 Maryland 6.1
Idaho 25.6 Kansas 6.0
Georgia 24.7 Wyoming 5.7
Florida 22.9 Montana 5.5
North Carolina 18.3 New Mexico 5.4
Hawaii 16.9 California 5.2
Colorado 15.3 New Jersey 4.4
Delaware 14.0 Louisiana 4.3
Virginia 12.9 Indiana 3.7
Tennessee 12.3 Washington 3.3
Arkansas 10.7 Mississippi 3.2
Nebraska 10.3 Illinois 2.0
Alaska 10.0 New Hampshire 2.0
Minnesota 9.1 West Virginia 1.3
Iowa 8.3 South Dakota 1.2
Oklahoma 8.2 Alabama 0.9
Oregon 7.2 Wisconsin 0.5
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (See reference table 5.)

States

The expected 9 percent national increase in public school enrollment between 2004 and 2016 plays out differently for most states.

  • Increases are projected for 40 states, with
    • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 10 states;
    • increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 19 states; and
    • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 11 states.
  • Decreases are projected for 10 states and the District of Columbia, with
    • decreases of 5 percent or more projected for 3 states; and
    • decreases between 4.99 and 0.1 percent projected for 7 states and the District of Columbia.

Regions

Table B. Projected percent decreases in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, by state: 2004 through 2016
State Percent change    State Percent change
North Dakota -9.3 Michigan -2.3
Rhode Island -7.0 Connecticut -2.3
Vermont -6.4 Massachusetts -2.1
District of Columbia -3.6 Pennsylvania -0.9
New York -2.8 Ohio -0.7
Maine -2.5
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (See reference table 5.)

Between 2004 and 2016, public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to

  • increase 17 percent in the South;
  • increase 11 percent in the West;
  • increase 2 percent in the Midwest; and
  • decrease 1 percent in the Northeast.


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