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Projections of Education Statistics to 2015

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Table A-2. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) by lead time for selected statistics in all public elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions: 2005
 
Statistic Lead time (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Public elementary and secondary schools
PK-12 enrollment 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.5
PK-8 enrollment 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.9 3.5
9–12 enrollment 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.3
High school graduates 0.8 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.5 4.0 3.9
Elementary and secondary teachers 1.0 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.7 5.6
Total current expenditures 1 1.3 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.9 4.0 4.8 4.1 3.7 3.0
Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment 1 1.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 3.5 4.5 5.1 4.8 5.5 5.2
Estimated average annual teacher salaries 1 1.2 1.6 2.0 3.4 5.0 6.3 7.9 9.0 9.5 9.7
 
Degree-granting institutions
Total enrollment 1.5 2.4 3.1 3.6 4.6 6.3 8.2 9.8 10.1
Men 1.6 2.8 3.4 4.2 5.7 7.1 8.5 9.6 9.2
Women 1.7 2.7 3.7 3.6 3.8 5.6 7.9 10.0 10.8
4-year institutions 1.1 2.0 2.8 3.9 4.5 5.8 8.0 9.8 10.5
2-year institutions 2.4 3.9 4.4 4.3 5.2 7.0 8.4 9.8 9.4
Associate's degrees 2.3 2.9 2.9 4.9 5.6 6.7 7.5 8.7 11.3 12.4
Bachelor's degrees 0.9 2.0 2.8 3.7 5.7 7.5 8.3 8.8 9.4 9.7
Master's degrees 1.6 4.1 7.7 9.9 11.3 14.2 16.4 16.7 15.7 17.4
Doctor's degrees 2.6 3.5 3.0 3.7 2.5 2.3 4.8 5.2 1.7 2.6
First-professional degrees 1.3 1.3 1.8 3.4 5.5 7.0 8.8 10.6 10.5 10.0
– Not available. Not all actual values were available to calculate a MAPE for this lead time.
1 In constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. MAPEs for K-12 enrollments were calculated using the last 22 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. MAPEs for high school graduates were calculated from the past 15 editions of Projections of Education Statistcs. MAPES for teachers were calculated from the past 15 editions containing teachers projections and MAPEs for current expenditures and teacher salaries were calculated using projections from the last 15 editions containing current expenditure and teacher salary projections. MAPEs for degree-granting institution enrollments and earned degrees were calculated using the last 8 and 9 editions, respectively. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared November 2005.)
 
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