Section 4. Degrees Conferred: Accuracy of Projections

An analysis of projection errors from the past nine editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for associate’s degree projections were 2.3 percent for 1 year out, 2.9 percent for 2 years out, 5.6 percent for 5 years out, and 12.4 percent for 10 years out. The MAPEs for bachelor’s degree projections were 0.9, 2.0, 5.7, and 9.7 percent, respectively, for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out. The MAPEs for master’s degrees were 1.6, 4.1, 11.3, and 17.4 percent, respectively. For doctor’s degrees, the MAPEs were 2.6, 3.5, 2.5, and 2.6 percent, respectively. For first-professional degrees, the MAPEs were 1.3, 1.3, 5.5, and 10.0 percent, respectively.

NCES projections of degrees by level produced over the last 9 years have been less accurate than NCES projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment produced over the same period. For more information on the MAPEs of different NCES projection series, see table A-2 in appendix A (368 KB).