Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: National

After increasing by about one-fifth between 1990 and 2003, elementary and secondary enrollments in both public and private schools are expected to increase at slower rates between 2003 and 2015. Small enrollment increases are expected at both the PK–8 and 9–12 grade spans (figures A and B; reference figures 2 and 3 and table 1).

The grade progression rate method

The method used to project school enrollments assumes that future trends in factors affecting enrollments will be consistent with past patterns. It implicitly includes the net effect of factors such as dropouts, deaths, nonpromotion, and transfers to and from public schools. See appendix A (368 KB) for more details.

Figure A. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary enrollment, total and by grade level: Selected years, 1990–2015

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NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, The NCES Common Core of Data surveys, various years; Private School Universe Survey, various years; and National Elementary and Secondary School Enrollment Model. (See reference table 1.)

Total enrollment

Total elementary and secondary enrollment

• increased 18 percent between 1990 and 2003; and
• is projected to increase an additional 6 percent between 2003 and 2015.

Enrollment in grades PK–8

Enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8

• increased 16 percent between 1990 and 2003; and
• is projected to increase an additional 7 percent between 2003 and 2015.

Enrollment in grades 9–12

Enrollment in grades 9–12

• increased 26 percent between 1990 and 2003; and
• is projected to increase an additional 3 percent between 2003 and 2015.

Figure B. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary enrollment, by control of school: Selected years, 1990–2015

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SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, The NCES Common Core of Data surveys, various years; Private School Universe Survey, various years; and National Elementary and Secondary School Enrollment Model. (See reference table 1.)

Public elementary and secondary enrollment

Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools

• increased 18 percent between 1990 and 2003; and
• is projected to increase an additional 6 percent between 2003 and 2015.

Private elementary and secondary enrollment

Enrollment in private elementary and secondary schools

• increased 23 percent between 1990 and 2003; and
• is projected to increase an additional 7 percent between 2003 and 2015.