An analysis of projection errors from the past eight editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for associate’s degree projections were 2.5 percent for 1 year out, 2.9 percent for 2 years out, and 5.6 percent for 5 years out. The MAPEs for bachelor’s degree projections were 1.0, 2.0, and 5.7 percent, respectively, for lead times of 1, 2, and 5 years out. The MAPEs for master’s degrees were 1.2, 4.1, and 11.3 percent, respectively. For doctor’s degrees, the MAPEs were 2.2, 3.5, and 2.5 percent, respectively. For first-professional degrees, the MAPEs were 1.3, 1.3, and 5.5 percent, respectively.
NCES projections of degrees by level produced over the last 8 years have been less accurate than NCES projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment produced over the same period. For more information on the MAPEs of different NCES projection series, see table A2 in appendix A.
