For NCES projections of public high school graduates produced over the last 14 years, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 0.8, 0.9, 1.2, and 4.2, respectively. NCES projections of public high school graduates have been less accurate than projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment, but more accurate than projections of earned degrees by level. For more information, see table A2 in appendix A.
