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Projections of Education Statistics to 2014, published September 2005.

Section 3. High School Graduates: State and Regional (Public School Data)

Between 2001–02 and 2013–14, the number of public high school graduates is expected to increase in over half the states (table C) and in all four regions (reference figure 23 and tables 24 and 25).

States

The expected 9 percent national increase in public high school graduates between 2001–02 and 2013–14 plays out differently among the states.

  • Increases are projected for 23 states, with
    • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 2 states;
    • increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 11 states; and
    • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 10 states.
  • Decreases are projected for 23 states.

Regions

Between 2001–02 and 2013–14, the number of public high school graduates is projected to

  • increase 17 percent in the West;
  • increase 12 percent in the South;
  • increase 4 percent in the Northeast; and
  • increase 3 percent in the Midwest.

Table C. Projected percent changes in the number of public high school graduates, by state: 2001-02 to 2013-14
State Percent increase State Percent decrease
Nevada 59.2 Arkansas -0.2
Arizona 31.6 Alabama -0.4
District of Col 30.4 Ohio -1.5
New Jersey 29.6 Alaska -2.5
Florida 22.6 New Hampshire -3.1
California 21.6 New York -3.3
Michigan 20.3 Wisconsin -4.5
Texas 20.2 Nebraska -5.7
Colorado 18.2 Kansas -6.0
Virginia 18.0 Hawaii -6.1
North Carolina 17.9 Mississippi -6.4
Georgia 17.8 New Mexico -7.2
South Carolina 11.2 Minnesota -7.3
Rhode Island 11.0 Oklahoma -8.8
Indiana 9.1 West Virginia -10.2
Illinois 8.3 Iowa -11.9
Delaware 8.2 Maine -12.8
Connecticut 8.0 South Dakota -13.1
Maryland 6.6 Louisiana -14.3
Idaho 6.5 Montana -18.9
Utah 6.1 Vermont -22.0
Tennessee 5.9 Wyoming -23.8
Massachusetts 5.6 North Dakota -25.5
Oregon 4.2
Missouri 2.7
Kentucky 0.6
Washington 0.5
Pennsylvania 0.1
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES: Common Core of Data surveys and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (See reference table 25.)

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