Skip Navigation
small NCES header image
Projections of Education Statistics to 2014, published September 2005.

Section 3. High School Graduates: Introduction

Between 200102 and 201314, the number of high school graduates is projected to increase nationally by 10 percent. Increases are expected in each region of the country, especially in the West. Both public and private schools are expected to have increases in high school graduates.

Factors affecting the projections

Projected increases in the number of graduates reflect changes in the 18-year-old population over the projection period, rather than changes in the graduation rates of 12th-graders. However, projections of graduates could be impacted by changes in policies affecting graduation requirements.


A high school graduate is defined as an individual who has received formal recognition from school authorities, by the granting of a diploma, for completing a prescribed course of study. This definition does not include other high school completers or high school equivalency recipients.

Would you like to help us improve our products and website by taking a short survey?

YES, I would like to take the survey


No Thanks

The survey consists of a few short questions and takes less than one minute to complete.