For projections of total enrollment in degree-granting institutions, an analysis of projection errors based on the past seven editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for lead times of 1, 2, and 5 years out were 1.8, 2.6, and 4.0 percent, respectively. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to be within 1.8 percent of the actual value, on average.
NCES projections of college enrollment produced over the past 7 years have been more accurate than projections of master’s degrees but less accurate than projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment produced over the same period. For more information, see table A2 in appendix A.
