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Projections of Education Statistics to 2014, published September 2005.

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: State and Regional (Public School Data)

Between 2002 and 2014, enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools is expected to increase in 23 states and decrease in 27 states and the District of Columbia (tables A and B; reference figure 5 and tables 4–9). In the regions, public school enrollment during the same period is expected to increase in the South and West, and decrease in the Northeast and Midwest.

States

The expected 4 percent national increase in public school enrollment between 2002 and 2014 plays out differently for most states.

  • Increases are projected for 23 states, with
    • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 2 states;
    • increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 11 states; and
    • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 10 states.
  • Decreases are projected for 27 states and the District of Columbia, with
    • decreases of 5 percent or more projected for 11 states; and
    • decreases between 4.99 and 0.1 percent projected for 16 states and the District of Columbia.

Regions

Between 2002 and 2014, public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to

  • increase 13 percent in the West;
  • increase 5 percent in the South;
  • decrease 2 percent in the Midwest; and
  • decrease 5 percent in the Northeast.
Table A. Projected percent increases in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, by state: 2002 to 2014
State Percent increase State Percent increase
Nevada 28.4 Hawaii 5
Texas 15.6 Washington 4.1
Utah 14.9 New Jersey 3.5
Arizona 14.5 North Carolina 3.3
California 14.2 Indiana 2.5
Idaho 13.8 Virginia 2.1
Colorado 10.9 Illinois 1.6
Florida 9.9 Wyoming 0.9
Georgia 8.7 Oklahoma 0.3
Alaska 7.7 Kansas 0.1
Oregon 6.7 Tennessee 0.1
New Mexico 5.7
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES: Common Core of Data surveys and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (See reference table 5.)

Table B. Projected percent decreases in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, by state: 2002 to 2014.
State Percent decrease State Percent decrease
Nebraska -0.2 Alabama -4.1
Arkansas -0.5 Ohio -4.7
Connecticut -0.6 Mississippi -4.8
Maryland -1.0 Montana -5.9
Missouri -1.6 New York -6.0
Delaware -2.0 Iowa -6.3
Minnesota -2.5 Massachusetts -6.5
South Carolina -2.7 Kentucky -6.5
District of Columbia -2.8 New Hampshire -7.1
Michigan -3.2 Pennsylvania -7.7
Louisiana -3.3 West Virginia -9.8
Rhode Island -3.6 North Dakota -10.2
South Dakota -3.6 Maine -12.8
Wisconsin -3.9 Vermont -15.2
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES: Common Core of Data surveys and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (See reference table 5.)

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