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Projections of Education Statistics to 2014, published September 2005.

Foreword and Acknowledgments

Foreword

Projections of Education Statistics to 2014 is the 33rd report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2013. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2014.

In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2014 at the state level. These projections were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual states.

Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state, or local education policies that may affect enrollment levels.

Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology, describing the models and assumptions used to develop the national and state projections. The enrollment models use enrollment data and population estimates and projections from NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The models also use projections of economic variables from Global Insight, Inc., an economic forecasting service.

The projections presented in this report are based on the 2000 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net immigration, and mortality rate. For further information, see appendix A.

Most of the projections of education statistics include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about demographic and economic growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative) in each table is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a range of outcomes.

This reportís Summary of Projections presents highlights of key education statistics. In addition, a brief overview of the projections in this report is available in a pocket-sized booklet, Pocket Projections: Projections of Education Statistics to 2014.

Val Plisko,
Associate Commissioner
Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting Studies Division
September 2005

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Acknowledgments

Projections of Education Statistics to 2014 was produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) in the Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting Studies Division under the general direction of Thomas D. Snyder, Director of the Annual Reports Program. The report was prepared by William J. Hussar, financial economist. He was supported by Tabitha Bailey, Geoffrey Green, and Maria Kulikova of Global Insight, Inc., who implemented the projection models.

Many people have contributed to the development of the Projections of Education Statistics series since its inception in 1964. Foremost among these contributors is Debra Gerald, who worked on every edition of the series from 1978 until her retirement in 2003, and served as project director for most of those issues. Along with her work on Projections of Education Statistics, Debra Gerald was the founder and first chair of the Federal Forecasters Consortium, an organization dedicated to bringing together forecasters from across the federal government to address forecasting issues and share solutions.

Robin Gurley and Heather Block of the Education Statistics Services Institute (ESSI) coordinated the production and design. The cover was designed by Elina Hartwell.

The technical review was done by Bruce Taylor of NCES. Kevin Bromer, Nina Emerson, Geeta Kotak, Pia Peltola, and Zeyu Xu of ESSI assisted in the technical review of this report. Valuable assistance was also provided by the following reviewers: Frank Johnson, Frank Morgan, and Duc-Le To.

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