PDF & Related Info
William J. HussarProjections of associate’s, bachelor’s, master’s, doctor’s, and first professional degrees by sex were based on demographic models that relate degree awards to college age populations and college enrollment by level enrolled and attendance status.
Associate’s degree projections by sex were based on a weighted average over the last 2 years of undergraduate enrollment by attendance status in 2 year institutions and sex relative to the 18- to 24-year-old population by sex. The previous year is weighted two-thirds, and 2 years back is weighted one-third. Results of the regression analysis used to project associate’s degrees by sex are shown in table A15.
Bachelor’s degree projections by sex were based on a weighted average over the last 4 years of undergraduate enrollment by attendance status in 4 year institutions and sex relative to the 18- to 24-year-old population by sex. The weights for the previous 4 years—0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1—give more weight to the most recent years. Results of the regression analysis used to project bachelor’s degrees by sex are shown in table A15. For some years, projections of undergraduate enrollment from the middle alternative projections were greater than those from the high alternative projections. (See page 92.) Hence, for some years, projections of bachelor’s degrees from the middle alternative projections are greater than those from the high alternative projections.
Master’s degree projections by sex were based on a weighted average over the last 2 years of graduate enrollment by attendance status and sex relative to the 25- to 34-year-old population by sex. The previous year is weighted two-thirds, and 2 years back is weighted one-third. Results of the regression analysis used to project master’s degrees by sex are shown in table A15. For some years, projections of graduate enrollment from the middle alternative projections were greater than those from the high alternative projections. (See page 92.) Hence, for some years, projections of master’s degrees from the middle alternative projections are greater than those from the high alternative projections.
Doctor’s degree projections by sex were based on a weighted average over the last 4 years of graduate enrollment by attendance status and sex relative to the 5- to 44-year old population by sex. The weights for the previous 4 years—0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1—give more weight to the most recent years. The results of the regression analysis used to project doctor’s degrees by sex are shown in table A15.
First professional degree projections by sex were based on a weighted average over the last 3 years of first professional enrollment by attendance status in 4 year institutions and sex relative to the 25- to 34-year-old population by sex. The weights for the previous 3 years—0.5, 0.33, and 0.17—give more weight to the most recent years. Results of the regression analysis used to project first professional degrees by sex are shown in table A15.
These tables describe equations used to calculate projections (table A15), and basic assumptions underlying projections (table A16).
An analysis of projection errors from similar models used in the past eight editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for associate’s degrees were 2.5 percent for 1 year out, 2.9 percent for 2 years out, and 5.6 percent for 5 years out. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to be within 2.5 percent of the actual value, on average. MAPEs for bachelor’s degree projections were 1.0 percent for 1 year out, 2.0 percent for 2 years out, and 5.7 percent for 5 years out. MAPEs for master’s degrees were 1.2, 4.1, and 11.3 percent, respectively. For doctor’s degrees, the MAPEs were 2.2, 3.5, and 2.5 percent, respectively. For first professional degrees, the MAPEs were 1.3, 1.3, and 5.5 percent, respectively. For more information on the MAPEs, see table A2.
