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| Table A18. Equations for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment, estimated average annual salaries of teachers, and education revenue from state sources | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | Equation | R2 | Durbin-Watson statistic1 | Error distribution pattern2 | Rho | Time period | |||||||
| Current expenditures per pupil | ln(CUREXP) | = | - | 0.5 | + | 0.7ln(PCI) (5.1) | + | 0.2ln(SGRANT) (2.5) | 0.99 | 1.4 | AR(1) | 0.82 (11.2) | 1969-70 to 2001-02 |
| Estimated average annual salaries | ln(SALRY) | = | 7.4 | + | 0.8ln(CUREXP) (5.6) | + | 0.5ln(ENRPOP) (2.1) | 0.96 | 1.58 | AR(1) | 0.98 (31.2) | 1970-71 to 2001-02 | |
| + | 1.3ln(ENR/ENR1) (2.4) | ||||||||||||
| Education revenue from state sources per capita | ln(SGRNT) | = | - | .3 | + | 1.3ln(PCI) (16.1) | + | 0.7ln(ENRPOP) (5.0) | 0.98 | 1.87 | AR(1) | 0.49 (3.0) | 1971-72
to 2001-02 |
| 1For an explanation of the Durbin-Watson statistic, see J. Johnston and J. Dinardo, Econometric Methods, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1996. | |||||||||||||
| 2AR(1) indicates that the models was estimated using least squares with the AR(1) process for correcting for first-order autocorrelation. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast when correcting for autocorrelation, see G. Judge, W. Hill, R. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and T. Lee, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pp. 315-318. | |||||||||||||
| Where: CUREXP = Current expenditures of public elementary and secondary schools per pupil in fall enrollment in constant 1982-84 dollars SALRY = Average annual salary of teachers in public elementary and secondary schools in constant 1982-84 dollars SGRANT = Local governments' education revenue from state sources, per capita, in constant 1982-84 dollars PCI = Disposable income per capita in constant 2000 chained dollars ENRPOP = Ratio of fall enrollment to the population ENR = Fall enrollment ENR1 = Fall enrollment lagged one period NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. Rho measures the correlation between errors in time period t and time period t minus 1. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics. |
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| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics; Elementary and Secondary School Current Expenditures Model, 1969-70 through 2001-02; Elementary and Secondary Teacher Salary Model, 1970-71 through 2001-02; and Revenue Receipts from State Sources Model, 1971-72 through 2001-02. (This table was prepared October 2004.) | |||||||||||||
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