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| Table A15. Equations for degrees conferred | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dependent variable | Equation | R2 | Durbin-Watson statistic1 | Error distribution pattern2 | Rho | Time period | ||||
| Associate degrees Men | LNASSOCM | = | 4.9 | + | 0.4LNUG2ML2 (9.6) | 0.95 | 2.0 | AR(1) | 0.58 (5.0) |
1975-76 to 2002-03 |
| Associate degrees Women | LNASSOCW | = | 5.6 | + | 0.5LNUG2WL2
(16.3) | 0.99 | 1.5 | AR(1) | 0.64 (8.1) |
1975-76 to 2002-03 |
| Bachelor's degrees Men | LNBACHM | = | 6.3 | - | 0.6LNUG4ML4
(4.4) | 0.98 | 1.6 | AR(1) | 0.87 (3.9) | 1977-78 to 2002-03 |
| Bachelor's degrees Women | LNBACHW | = | 6.7 | - | 0.7LNUG4WL4
(10.2) | 0.99 | 1.3 | AR(1) | 0.81 (4.5) |
1977-78 to 2002-03 |
| Master's degrees Men | LNMASTM | = | 6.9 | + | 0.6LNGML2
(4.4) | 0.97 | 1.4 | AR(1) | 1.02 (9.2) |
1975-76 to 2002-03 |
| Master's degrees Women | LNMASTW | = | 7.7 | + | 0.7LNGWL2
(19.9) | 0.99 | 1.4 | AR(1) | 0.79 (18.2) |
1975-76 to 2002-03 |
| Doctor's degrees Men | LNDOCM | = | 3.2 | + | 0.4LNGML4
(6.3) | 0.99 | 1.7 | AR(1) | 0.69 (6.7) |
1977-78 to 2002-03 |
| Doctor's degrees Women | LNDOCW | = | 1.2 | + | 0.3LNGWL4 (2.8) | 0.93 | 2.3 | AR(1) | 1.01 (15.9) |
1977-78 to 2002-03 |
| First-professional degrees Men | LNFPROM | = | 3.5 | + | 0.2LNFPML3
(3.1) | 0.99 | 1.7 | AR(1) | 0.87 (22.7) |
1976-77 to 2002-03 |
| First-professional degrees Women | LNFPROW | = | 7.9 | + | 0.6LNFPWL3
(34.6) | 0.98 | 0.9 | AR(1) | 0.05 (0.5) |
1976-77 to 2002-03 |
| 1For an explanation of the Durbin-Watson statistic, see J. Johnston and J. Dinardo, Econometric Methods, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1996. | ||||||||||
| 2AR(1) indicates that the models was estimated using least squares with the AR(1) process for correcting for first-order autocorrelation. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see G. Judge, W. Hill, R. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and T. Lee, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pp. 315-318. | ||||||||||
| Where: LNASSOCM = Log of the ratio of associate degrees awarded to men relative to the population of 18- to 24- year old men LNASSOCW = Log of the ratio of associate degrees awarded to woman relative to the population of 18- to 24- year old women LNBACHM = Log of the ratio of bachelor's degrees awarded to men relative to the population of 18- to 24- year old men LNBACHW = Log of the ratio of bachelor's degrees awarded to women relative to the population of 18- to 24- year old women LNMASTM = Log of the ratio of master's degrees awarded to men relative to the population of 25- to 34- year old men LNMASTW = Log of the ratio of master's degrees awarded to women relative to the population of 25- to 34- year old women LNDOCM = Log of the ratio of doctor's degrees awarded to men relative to the population of 35- to 44- year old men LNDOCW = Log of the ratio of doctor's degrees awarded to women relative to the population of 35- to 44- year old women LNFPROM = Log of the ratio of first-professional degrees awarded to men relative to the population of 25- to 34- year old men LNFPROW = Log of the ratio of first-professional degrees awarded to women relative to the population of 25- to 34- year old women LNUG2ML2 = Log of the ratio of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions to the male population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 2 years (where weights are 67 and33 for descending lagged years), plus the similar Log ratio for part-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions. LNUG2WL2 = Log of the ratio of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions to the female population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 2 years (where weights are 67 and33 for descending lagged years), plus the similar Log ratio for part-time female undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions. LNUG4ML4 = Log of the ratio of full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions to the male population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 4 years (where weights are 4,3,2, and1 for descending lagged years), plus the similar Log ratio for part-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions. LNUG4WL4 = Log of the ratio of full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions to the female population of 18- to 24-year-olds, weighted over the last 4 years (where weights are 4,3,2, and1 for descending lagged years), plus the similar Log ratio for part-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions. LNGML2 = Log of the ratio of full-time male graduate school enrollment to the male population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the last 2 years (where weights are 67 and 33 for descending lagged years), plus the similar Log ratio for part-time male graduate school enrollment. LNGWL2 = Log of the ratio of full-time female school graduate enrollment to the female population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the last 2 years (where weights are 67 and 33 for descending lagged years), plus the similar Log ratio for part-time female graduate school enrollment. LNGML4 = Log of the ratio of full-time male graduate school enrollment to the male population of 35- to 44-year-olds, weighted over the last 4 years (where weights are4,3.,2, and 1 for descending lagged years), plus the similar Log ratio for part-time male graduate school enrollment. LNGWL4 = Log of the ratio of full-time female graduate school enrollment to the female population of 35- to 44-year-olds, weighted over the last 4 years (where weights are4,3,2, and1 for descending lagged years), plus the similar Log ratio for part-time female graduate school enrollment. LNFPML3 = Log of the ratio of full-time male first-professional school enrollment to the male population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the last 3 years (where weights are 5, 33, and17 for descending lagged years), plus the similar Log ratio for part-time male first-professional school enrollment. LNFPWL3 = Log of the ratio of full-time female first-professional school enrollment to the female population of 25- to 34-year-olds, weighted over the last 3 years (where weights are 5,33, and17 for descending lagged years), plus the similar Log ratio for part-time female first-professional school enrollment. | ||||||||||
| NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. Rho measures the correlation between errors in time period t and time period t minus 1. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics. | ||||||||||
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Degrees Conferred Model, 1975-76 through 2002-03. (This table was prepared October 2004.) | ||||||||||
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