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Projections of Education Statistics to 2014, Thirty-third Edition, September 2005 - Enrollment (assumptions)

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Table A14. Enrollment (assumptions)
Variables Assumptions Alternatives Tables
Elementary and secondary enrollment Age-specific enrollment rates will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. Middle
(no alternatives)
1-9
 
Public enrollment rates and public grade retention rates will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. Middle
(no alternatives)
1-9
 
The percentage of 7th- and 8th-grade public students enrolled in schools organized as secondary schools will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. Middle
(no alternatives)
1-9
 
College enrollment, by age
 
Full-time men, full-time women, and part-time women Age-specific enrollment rates are a function of dummy variables by age, middle alternative log of four-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita, and middle alternative log unemployment rate by age group. Middle 10-19
 
Age-specific enrollment rates are a function of dummy variables by age, low alternative log of four-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita, and low alternative log unemployment rate by age group. Low 10-19
 
Age-specific enrollment rates are a function of dummy variables by age, high alternative log of four-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita, and high alternative log unemployment rate by age group. High 10-19
 
Part-time men Age-specific enrollment rates for men are a function of dummy variables by age, the middle alternative log of four-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita, and middle alternative log unemployment rate by age group. Middle 10-19
 
Age-specific enrollment rates for men are a function of dummy variables by age, the low alternative log of four-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita, and low alternative log unemployment rate by age group. Low 10-19
 
Age-specific enrollment rates for men are a function of dummy variables by age, the high alternative log of four-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita, and high alternative log unemployment rate by age group. High 10-19
 
College enrollment, by sex, attendance status, level enrolled, and type of institution For each group and for each attendance status separately, percent of total enrollment by sex, level enrolled, and type of institution will follow past trends through 2014. For each age group and attendance status category, the sum of the percent- ages must equal 100 percent. High, middle, and low 10-19
 
College enrollment, by control of institution For each enrollment category, by sex, attendance status, and level enrolled, and by type of institution, public enrollment as a percent of total enrollment will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. High, middle, and low 10-19
 
Graduate enrollment For each enrollment category, by sex and attendance status of student, and by type and control of institution, graduate enrollment as a percent of postbaccalaureate enrollment will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. High, middle, and low 20
 
Full-time-equivalent of part-time enrollment For each enrollment category, by type and control of institution and level enrolled, the percent that full-time-equivalent of part-time enrollment is of part-time enrollment will remain constant at levels consistent with the most recent rates. High, middle, and low 22
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1972-2002, State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model, 1980-2002, and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Model, 1980-2002. (This table was prepared October 2004.)

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