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Projections of Education Statistics to 2014, Thirty-third Edition, September 2005 - Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) by lead time for selected statistics in all public elementary and  secondary schools and degree-granting institutions

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Table A2. Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) by lead time for selected statistics in all public elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions
Statistics Lead time (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Public elementary and secondary schools
 
PK-12 enrollment0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.6
PK-8 enrollment 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.7
9-12 enrollment 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4
High school graduates0.8 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.5 3.5 3.9 4.2
Elementary and secondary teachers 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.4
Total current expenditures11.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 3.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 3.1 3.1
Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment11.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.7
Estimated average annual teacher salaries11.2 1.6 2.1 3.6 5.1 6.7 8.3 9.1 10.3 10.7
 
Degree-granting institutions
 
Total enrollment1.8 2.6 2.3 1.7 4.0 6.0 7.4
Men 1.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 5.3 6.9 7.7
Women 1.9 3.0 2.8 1.2 3.0 5.3 7.2
4-year institutions 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.9 5.3 6.5
2-year institutions 2.7 4.4 3.9 2.7 4.8 7.0 9.0
Associate's degrees2.5 2.9 3.2 4.9 5.6 5.5 6.2 8.6 8.9
Bachelor's degrees1.0 2.0 2.6 3.4 5.7 6.8 7.5 7.4 8.0
Master's degrees 1.2 4.1 7.3 8.8 11.3 12.9 13.5 11.6 12.0
Doctor's degrees2.2 3.5 2.2 3.1 2.5 2.2 4.4 3.5 2.1
First-professional degrees1.3 1.3 1.8 3.8 5.5 8.0 8.8 9.4 9.0
Current-fund expenditures in public 4-year institutions1 0.9 0.9 1.3 2.7 4.6 4.6 4.3 3.3 3.7 4.5
Current-fund expenditures in public 2-year institutions11.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.8 3.8 4.6 5.3 5.9 7.6
—Not available. Not all actual values were available to calculate a MAPE for this lead time.
1In constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. MAPEs for K-12 enrollments were calculated using the last 21 editions of Projections of Education Statistics. MAPEs for high school graduates were calculated from the past 14 editions of Projections of Education Statistcs. MAPES for teachers were calculated from the past 14 editions containing teachers projections and MAPEs for current expenditures and teacher salaries were calculated using projections from the last 14 editions containing current expenditure and teacher salary projections. MAPEs for degree-granting institution enrollments and earned degrees were calculated using the last 7 and 8 editions, respectively. MAPEs for current-fund expenditures were calculated using the last 9 editions of Projections of Education Statistcs that included projections of current-fund expenditures. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared October 2004.)

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