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Projections of Education Statistics to 2014, Thirty-third Edition, September 2005 - Summary of forecast assumptions to 2014

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Table A1. Summary of forecast assumptions to 2014
Variables Middle alternative Low alternative High alternative
Demographic assumptions
 
Population Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau middle series esti- mates. Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
18- to 24-year-old population Average annual growth rate of 0.6% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
25- to 29-year-old population Average annual growth rate of 1.3% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
30- to 34-year-old population Average annual growth rate of 0.4% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
35- to 44-year-old population Average annual decline of 0.7% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
 
Economic assumptions
 
Disposable income per capita in constant dollars Annual percent changes range be- tween 1.6% and 3.1% with an annual growth rate of 2.4% Annual percent changes range be- tween 1.2% and 2.4% with an annual growth rate of 1.8% Annual percent changes range be- tween 1.8% and 3.8% with an annual growth rate of 3.0%
 
Education revenue receipts from state sources per capita in constant dollars Annual percent changes range be- tween 1.5% and 3.5% with an annual growth rate of 2.4% Annual percent changes range be- tween 0.8% and 2.7% with an annual growth rate of 1.7% Annual percent changes range be- tween 1.8% and 4.4% with an annual growth rate of 3.2%
 
Inflation rate Inflation rate ranges between 1.2% and 2.9% Inflation rate ranges between 1.2% and 3.5% Inflation rate ranges between 1.2% and 2.9%
 
Personal taxes and nontax re- ceipts to state and local govern- ments per capita in constant dollars Annual percent changes range be- tween 1.9% and 7.1% with an annual growth rate of 3.9% Annual percent changes range be- tween 1.4% and 7.0% with an annual growth rate of 3.1% Annual percent changes range be- tween 2.8% and 7.2% with an annual growth rate of 5.7%
 
Unemployment rate (men)
 
Ages 18 to 19 Remains between 12.8% and 17.0% Remains between 13.5% and 17.5% Remains between 12.9% and 14.9%
Ages 20 to 24 Remains between 7.1% and 9.6% Remains between 7.5% and 10.0% Remains between 7.2% and 8.5%
Age 25 and over Remains between 3.4% and 4.6% Remains between 3.6% and 4.8% Remains between 3.4% and 4.1%
 
Unemployment rate (women)
 
Ages 18 to 19 Remains between 10.7% and 13.9% Remains between 11.2% and 14.1% Remains between 10.8% and 12.5%
Ages 20 to 24 Remains between 6.8% and 9.0% Remains between 7.1% and 9.3% Remains between 6.9% and 8.0%
Age 25 and over Remains between 3.3% and 4.4% Remains between 3.5% and 4.6% Remains between 3.3% and 3.9%
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, previously unpublished tabulation (June 2004); and Global Insight, Inc., "U.S. Quarterly Model." (This table was prepared October 2004.)

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