Public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase to 53 million in 2016. The South is projected to experience the largest increase in enrollment.

In 2007,¹ about 50 million students are expected to be enrolled in public schools. Of these students, 34.6 million will be enrolled in prekindergarten (preK) through 8th grade and 15.0 million will be enrolled in grades 9 through 12.

After declining during the 1970s and early 1980s to 39.4 million in 1985, public school enrollment in grades preK–12 increased in the latter part of the 1980s, throughout the 1990s, and through the early 2000s, and is projected to reach an estimated 49.6 million in 2007 (see table 3-1). Total public school enrollment is projected to set new enrollment records each year from 2007 through 2016 (53.3 million).

Enrollment trends in grades preK–8 and 9–12 have differed over time as students move through the public school system. For example, enrollment in grades preK–8 decreased throughout the 1970s and early 1980s, while enrollment in grades 9–12 decreased in the late 1970s and throughout the 1980s. Public school enrollment in grades preK–8 is projected to increase to 34.6 million in 2007 and to reach 37.9 million in 2016. Enrollment in grades 9–12 is projected to increase to 15.0 million in 2007 and to decrease through 2011 before increasing to a high of 15.4 million in 2016.

Since 1965 the southern region has had the largest share of public enrollment in the United States. The regional distribution of students in public schools, however, has not remained static. In 1965, the proportion of public elementary and secondary enrollment in the South was 33 percent and is projected to increase to 37 percent in 2007. While the share of enrollment in the West was 18 percent in 1965, it is projected to increase to 24 percent in 2007. In contrast, the share of enrollment in the Midwest was 28 percent in 1965 and is projected to decrease to 22 percent in 2007. The share of national enrollment in the Northeast was 21 percent in 1965 and is projected to decrease to 17 percent in 2007. Between 2008 and 2016, the share of public school enrollment in grades preK–12 is projected to decrease slightly in the Northeast and Midwest, increase in the South, and remain steady in the West.

¹ All estimates are from the fall of the referenced year. (back to text)