Various measures have been developed to provide information about student persistence and progress through elementary and secondary education. Four measures are presented in this report: status dropout rate (indicator 26), percentage of sophomores who left without graduating within 2 years (indicator 27), the public school averaged freshman graduation rate (indicator 28), and the educational attainment of 25- to 29-year-olds (indicator 31). The four indicators in this volume that present these measures each employ a different analytic method and dataset to document a different aspect of the complex high school graduation-dropout process. No one data source provides comprehensive information on the graduation and dropout process on an annual basis, but the four indicators presented here complement one another and draw upon the particular strength of their respective data. Each indicator is not without its limitations, however, which makes it critical to have multiple indicators when addressing the question of student persistence. A brief description of the relevant methodology and data used by each indicator follows.

STATUS DROPOUT RATE

Indicator 26 reports status dropout rates by race/ethnicity. Status dropout rates measure the extent of the dropout problem for a population and as such can be used to estimate the need for further education and training in that population. This indicator uses Current Population Survey (CPS) data to estimate the percentage of the civilian, noninstitutionalized population ages 16 through 24 who are not in high school and who have not earned a high school credential (either a diploma or equivalency credential such as a General Educational Development [GED] certificate), irrespective of when they dropped out. An advantage of using CPS data to compute this status dropout rate is that it can be computed on an annual basis for various demographic subgroups of adults and can report out a national rate that includes dropouts of public and private schools. The disadvantages of using CPS data to compute status dropout rates is that they (1) exclude all military personnel and incarcerated or institutionalized persons and (2) include as dropouts individuals who never attended U.S. schools, including immigrants who did not complete the equivalent of a high school education in their home country.

SOPHOMORES WHO LEFT WITHOUT GRADUATING WITHIN 2 YEARS

Indicator 27 examines data on public and private high school students who participated in the Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) of 2002. The sophomore class of 2002 was interviewed 2 years later in 2004 and asked about their high school enrollment and graduation status. This indicator shows the percentage of the sophomore class of 2002 who were not in school and had not graduated with a regular diploma or certificate of attendance by spring 2004. The time period of the sophomore base survey was typically between February and June; thus, students who dropped out before that time period would not have been included in the survey. The 1 percent of sophomores who left school and earned a GED certificate or other form of equivalency certificate as of the spring 2 years later were not counted as regular high school graduates in this analysis. An advantage of using ELS data to measure educational persistence is that, compared with other information sources, they provide much more detailed information about the background of the students, as well as their schools and parents. The disadvantages of using ELS data to measure educational persistence is that the survey (1) is conducted only about once per decade, (2) represents only those persons who are still on track for high school completion, and (3) represents the experience of one sophomore cohort (2002), which may or may not be a typical cohort.

AVERAGED PUBLIC SCHOOL FRESHMAN GRADUATION RATE

Indicator 28 examines the percentage of public high school students who graduate by using the averaged freshman graduation rate (AFGR). The AFGR is a measure of the percentage of the incoming freshman class that graduates 4 years later. The AFGR is the number of graduates divided by the estimated count of freshmen 4 years earlier as reported through the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD), the survey system based on state education departments’ annual administrative records. The estimated count of freshmen is calculated by summing 10th-grade enrollment 2 years before the graduation year, 9th-grade enrollment 3 years before the graduation year, and 8th-grade enrollment 4 years before the graduation year and dividing this amount by 3. The intent of this averaging is to account for the high rate of grade retention in the freshman year, which adds 9th-grade repeaters from the previous year to the number of students in the incoming freshman class each year. Enrollment counts include a proportional distribution of students not enrolled in a specific grade. An advantage of using CCD data to calculate the AFGR is that they are available on an annual basis by state; however, the demographic details are limited. Also, the data neither include students attending private schools nor account for students transferring to and from private schools.

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF 25- TO 29-YEAR-OLDS

Indicator 31 examines the percentage of adults just past the age when most would traditionally be expected to complete their postsecondary education. The rate can be reported by race/ethnicity and other demographic variables, and CPS data are used to estimate the percentage of civilian, noninstitutionalized people ages 25 through 29 who are out of high school and who have earned a high school credential (either a diploma or equivalency credential such as a GED). The rate does not differentiate between those who graduated from public schools, graduated from private schools, or who earned a GED. The rate also includes individuals who never attended high school in the United States. An advantage of using CPS data to compute the educational attainment rate is that it can be computed on an annual basis for various demographic subgroups of adults and can report out a national rate that includes public and private schools. A disadvantage of using CPS data to compute the educational attainment rate is that these data exclude all military personnel and incarcerated or institutionalized persons.

Even though these four indicators document different aspects of student persistence, a number of important differences between these indicators should be noted and recognized as likely factors responsible for the divergence between their respective estimates. General differences can be found in the population of interest, definition of outcomes, information source, and data collection timeframe. For example, the four indicators focus on different populations: 16- through 24-year-olds between 1972 and 2004 (indicator 26), the sophomore class of 2002 in 2004 (indicator 27), the number of graduates in 2002–03 based on the 1999–2000 freshman class (indicator 28), and 25- through 29-year-olds between 1971 and 2005 (indicator 31). The indicators vary in the outcome measured. For example, indicator 26 includes both students who earned a regular diploma or a GED certificate, while indicator 27 does not include GED recipients with high school graduates. The source of information used to construct the indicators also varies. Indicator 27 is based on student self-reports, while indicator 28 is produced from the CCD, a survey system based on state education departments’ annual administrative records. Another important variation between indicators is the timeframe that each uses. For example, indicator 27 examines the percentage of sophomores in 2002 who left high school without graduating by 2004, and indicator 26 examines the percentage of all persons ages 16–24 who were no longer in high school and who had not earned a high school credential by 2004, regardless of when they dropped out.

Given such differences, one would not expect to see identical or even similar estimates. In fact, very reasonable differences should be apparent. For example, if one estimate measures only regular diplomas completed on time, it should be smaller than one that is constructed to measure both regular diplomas and GEDs. Once accounting for these methodological differences, the divergence between estimates tends to be in the correct direction and of the right magnitude.

This supplemental note is intended to provide only a brief overview of some of the commonly available data that address the complex issue of high school completion. For more detail on methods used to analyze dropout and graduation rates in these indicators and other related measures of student persistence and progress, see supplemental notes 2 and 3 and the publications by Seastrom et al. (NCES 2006-604 and 2006-605) and Laird, DeBell, and Chapman (NCES 2007-024).