Section 4. Degrees Conferred: Accuracy of Projections

An analysis of projection errors from the past 12 editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for associate’s degree projections were 2.1 percent for 1 year out, 3.3 percent for 2 years out, 6.0 percent for 5 years out, and 15.6 percent for 10 years out. The MAPEs for bachelor’s degree projections were 0.9, 1.9, 6.0, and 13.5 percent, respectively, for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out. The MAPEs for master’s degrees were 1.5, 3.5, 12.4, and 25.0 percent, respectively. For doctor’s degrees, the MAPEs were 3.4, 5.5, 6.1, and 11.9 percent, respectively. For first-professional degrees, the MAPEs were 1.3, 1.7, 5.1, and 13.8 percent, respectively. For more information on the MAPEs of different NCES projection series, see table A-2 in appendix A.