Section 3. High School Graduates: Accuracy of Projections

For NCES projections of public high school graduates produced over the last 18 years, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 1.0, 0.9, 1.8, and 3.8, respectively. For more information, see table A-2 in appendix A.