Projections of Education Statistics to 2018 - Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: State and Regional (Public School Data)

Projections of Education Statistics to 2018

NCES 2009-062
September 2009

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: State and Regional (Public School Data)

States

Table A. Projected percentage increases in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, by state: 2006 through 2018

State	Percent change	State	Percent change
Arizona	42.2	Alaska	8.5
Nevada	40.2	Oklahoma	7.1
Texas	32.1	Nebraska	7.0
Utah	29.7	South Carolina	5.8
Idaho	26.1	Minnesota	5.5
Georgia	25.2	Missouri	4.7
Florida	24.0	Kansas	3.8
North Carolina	22.9	Kentucky	3.6
Colorado	19.3	Montana	3.3
Tennessee	12.9	Indiana	3.2
Delaware	11.7	District of Columbia	3.1
Virginia	11.5	Maryland	2.4
Oregon	11.0	Illinois	2.3
Wyoming	10.6	Wisconsin	2.2
New Mexico	10.5	Alabama	1.4
Arkansas	9.1	Iowa	1.3
Washington	8.7	New Hampshire	1.1
California	8.6
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (See reference table 5.)

The expected 9 percent national increase in public school enrollment between 2006 and 2018 plays out differently among the states (reference figures 5–7 and tables 4–9).

Increases are projected for 34 states and the District of Columbia, with
- increases of more than 15 percent projected for 9 states;
- increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 14 states; and
- increases of less than 5 percent projected for 11 states and the District of Columbia.
Decreases are projected for 16 states, with
- decreases of 5 percent or more projected for 8 states; and
- decreases between 4.99 and 0.1 percent projected for 8 states.

Regions

Table B. Projected percentage decreases in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, by state: 2006 through 2018

State	Percent change	State	Percent change
Rhode Island	-11.5	Maine	-4.5
New York	-9.0	Louisiana	-3.6
North Dakota	-8.5	Ohio	-3.1
Michigan	-7.9	West Virginia	-2.4
Vermont	-7.4	New Jersey	-2.4
Massachusetts	-6.2	Pennsylvania	-1.7
Connecticut	-5.9	Mississippi	-0.8
Hawaii	-5.7	South Dakota	-0.5
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (See reference table 5.)

Between 2006 and 2018, public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to decrease 5 percent in the Northeast.

increase 18 percent in the South;
increase 15 percent in the West;
increase less than 1 percent in the Midwest; and
decrease 5 percent in the Northeast.

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National Center for Education Statistics - http://nces.ed.gov
U.S. Department of Education

Institute of Education Sciences
National Center for Education Statistics

U.S. Department of Education