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U.S. Department of Education
Institute of Education Sciences
NCES Kids' Zone
  
Projections of Education Statistics to 2017

NCES 2008-078
September 2008

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Table A-1.  Summary of forecast assumptions to 2017

Variable Middle alternative   Low alternative   High alternative
Demographic assumptions          
Population Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau middle series estimates1   Same as middle alternative   Same as middle alternative
           
18- to 24-year-old population Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of -0.07%   Same as middle alternative   Same as middle alternative
           
25- to 29-year-old population Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 0.9%   Same as middle alternative   Same as middle alternative
           
30- to 34-year-old population Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of 1.3%   Same as middle alternative   Same as middle alternative
           
35- to 44-year-old population Census Bureau middle series projection: average annual growth rate of -0.3%   Same as middle alternative   Same as middle alternative
           
Economic assumptions    
Disposable income per capita in constant dollars Annual percent changes range between 0.4% and 2.7% with an annual growth rate of 2.1%   Annual percent changes range between 0.4% and 2.3% with an annual growth rate of 1.4%   Annual percent changes range between 0.4% and 3.6% with an annual growth rate of 2.6%
           
Education revenue receipts from state sources per capita in constant dollars Annual percent changes range between -1.2% and 3.6% with an annual growth rate of 2.5%   Annual percent changes range between -1.2% and 3.5% with an annual growth rate of 1.7%   Annual percent changes range between -1.2% and 3.7% with an annual growth rate of 3.1%
           
Inflation rate Inflation rate ranges between 1.8% and 3.8%   Inflation rate ranges between 2.2% and 3.8%   Inflation rate ranges between 1.1% and 3.8%
           
Unemployment rate (men)    
Ages 18 and 19 Remains between 15.4% and 17.0%   Remains between 16.8% and 18.5%   Remains between 15.2% and 16.7%
           
Ages 20 to 24 Remains between 8.3% and 9.2%   Remains between 9.1% and 10.1%   Remains between 8.2% and 9.1%
           
Age 25 and over Remains between 3.3% and 3.7%   Remains between 3.7% and 4.1%   Remains between 3.3% and 3.7%
           
Unemployment rate (women)    
Ages 18 and 19 Remains between 12.0% and 13.0%   Remains between 12.9% and 14.0%   Remains between 11.8% and 12.9%
           
Ages 20 to 24 Remains between 6.9% and 7.6%   Remains between 7.5% and 8.2%   Remains between 6.9% and 7.5%
           
Age 25 and over Remains between 3.4% and 3.7%   Remains between 3.7% and 4.1%   Remains between 3.4% and 3.7%
           
–Not available.
1 As the Census projections were not updated to reflect 2007 Census Bureau population estimates, the Census Bureau age-specific population projections for each year were adjusted by multipling the ratio of the total Census Bureau estimate for 2007 to the total Census Bureau projection for 2007.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, retrieved September 7, 2007, from http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/2006_nat_af.html; and Population Projections, retrieved September 7, 2007, from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/; and Global Insight, Inc., "U.S. Quarterly Model." (This table was prepared December 2007.)

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